eBay, forum classifieds, and game used sales

[emann]

Good points Bryzzo regarding collectors. Obviously, all collectors aren't lazy, their time is more valuable than money and would rather spend a premium for a slam dunk of an item instead of immerse themselves into the hobby like most of us do, which is perfectly fine. If I want to buy a Rolex, I'll pay more going to a guy I know is the guy to get Rolexes from instead of spending weeks scouring online for the best deal.

The point about casual bidders makes sense around the more well-publicized auctions (like AS, WS, WBC). I can understand that they have tons of eyes on those games and the promotion for those auctions, increases interest and bidding.

I understand the casual well-heeled collector theory, even though I feel those people aren't true "collectors," they're just luxury item consumers. Although, I still think collecting game worn laundry is less accessible than buying Rolexes, etc . . .

At some point those people need to change their office decor, where do the items go? A decent Rolex is a very easy thing to sell, a game worn jersey that you seriously overpaid for, not so much. Maybe we haven't hit that point yet, where those buyers start going "is it still cool to have this Stephen Drew 2013 World Series jersey that I paid 5K for hanging on my wall?"

[ChrisCavalier]

Very interesting thread. I will add a couple of my observations to the mix:

1) Regarding eBay, for the reasons suggested here, it appears almost all of the quality sports memorabilia items are now offered via BINs.
Unfortunately, almost all of the offered prices are so unreasonable that it discourages me from even looking.
I mean, when someone lists an item for five times retail, why would I want to spend time making an offer when it is telling me the seller probably has no intention of selling it at a price that would seem reasonable.
My suspicion is that sellers think by listing it at five times retail, the buyer will think he is getting a deal if he offers twice retail.
However, that is clearly a game for uneducated industry buyers and one I certainly have no interest playing.

I guess if you have a lot of time (maybe rich guys like Nick who are buying Rolex watches ), you can invest the time needed to find the few deals that might be out there.
However, since I am so busy with work and other activities, I honestly do not have the time it takes to find the few deals that may be found if you are watching all the time.
If you do have the time and patience to find those deals then God bless you. I am just not one of those people.

2) I look at data a LOT (I used to work in market research for Procter & Gamble) when trying to determine potential values of items.
As you can imagine, given what I do for a living, I am often asked what I think an item might bring in auction.
Rather than licking my finger and sticking it in the air, I look at empirical sales data in an effort to extrapolate a reasonable estimate from it.
With that said, one of the questions I always have to ask myself when looking at data is whether or not a data point for an item "sold" online was really a sale.
As everyone here likely knows, Goldin (the company I bring in consignments for) does not use "hidden reserves."
However, I often wonder how many auction venues do use hidden reserves and whether or not those reserves are revealed when items do not sell.
This is especially true when I look at eBay data online for items that 'sold' via the BIN option.
Please note I am not judging anyone in this regard. I just wonder if the data that is available online is truly an accurate reflection of the market.

Just a couple of additional thoughts I wanted to add to this interesting very topic.
Would love to hear any other thoughts others might have.

-Chris

[Juicyfruit66]

i think a lot of people are using facebook mlb game used sites to sell GU stuff with no fees.

[bryzzo2016]

"I understand the casual well-heeled collector theory, even though I feel those people aren't true "collectors," they're just luxury item consumers. Although, I still think collecting game worn laundry is less accessible than buying Rolexes, etc . . .

At some point those people need to change their office decor, where do the items go? A decent Rolex is a very easy thing to sell, a game worn jersey that you seriously overpaid for, not so much. Maybe we haven't hit that point yet, where those buyers start going "is it still cool to have this Stephen Drew 2013 World Series jersey that I paid 5K for hanging on my wall?"[/QUOTE]"



I couldn't agree more. I think a lot of the people that pay those high prices definitely fit in this category.

[emann]

Very interesting thread. I will add a couple of my observations to the mix:

1) Regarding eBay, for the reasons suggested here, it appears almost all of the quality sports memorabilia items are now offered via BINs.
Unfortunately, almost all of the offered prices are so unreasonable that it discourages me from even looking.
I mean, when someone lists an item for five times retail, why would I want to spend time making an offer when it is telling me the seller probably has no intention of selling it at a price that would seem reasonable.

However, I often wonder how many auction venues do use hidden reserves and whether or not those reserves are revealed when items do not sell.
This is especially true when I look at eBay data online for items that 'sold' via the BIN option.
Please note I am not judging anyone in this regard. I just wonder if the data that is available online is truly an accurate reflection of the market.

Chris-

Very interesting comments; I do think the high BIN's on eBay have discouraged any offers from most buyers. Even with a reasonable retail BIN, I think you have fewer people willing to even make an offer, similar to the issue of auctioning there with a reserve—buyers just assume they're not going to win the item and don't bid. BIN buyers just assume that whatever offer they make will get haggled/countered . . . The items that are 5x market value for me just add to the noise that needs to be waded thru to find good items at fair prices.

As I mentioned at the beginning, I think some are still out there, but not as many. So, obviously collectors are holding items more, etc.

I did notice in rereading that I used the last decade as the timespan I'm referencing. So, maybe in 2008 with the economy tanking, more good items were being made available for quick cash on eBay and now they're being held onto?

re; your market analysis. I found that interesting and agree, I don't think online auctions are a reliable source for this info. It is too easy for a couple auctions to skew the average value. An auction that goes unnoticed and sells cheap (as mentioned earlier), an impulse bidder who overpays, etc. Since every item is also one-of-a-kind, so many variables toward figuring it out. Does it basically come down to specific sports auctions and dealer sales (without being able to access private sales numbers of most transactions) for you?