The future of collecting...

[gingi79]

Larry,

While I think these insights are factual, they are my opinions. The hobby as I see it, is starting a new phase with 4 very distinct parts.

- Teams once either horded their game used or made deals with a Milt Byron or Murf Denny to allow fans the opportunity to obtain gamers at reasonable prices. Those days are long gone. Teams now suffer from delusions of grandeur, pricing jerseys well above what average fans can afford.

- Somehow the terms integrity and authenticity now come with price tag. Some folks point to eBay and all of the dealers and con men that still exist. They'll say the premium increase is worth it for the piece of mind. I say they are only using euphemistic language to price gouge and profiteer by praying on fear.

- Collectors once knew their items would retain value. Buying a jersey this season came with the knowledge you could sell it for the same price and in most cases for more money, 2 years later. With the exception of one of my jerseys, I'd lose money on every item I have if I sold them today. I'd argue many of us on this board are in a very similar boat.

- I think this hobby will follow the early 90's baseball card fad. Just like 50's Topps still hold value, so too would jerseys from before 2000. I wonder whether the overinflated price bubble on modern material will pop and allow average fans the opportunity to finally obtain their favorite players jersey? The hobby would then return to a rational price structure for average fans and buying a jersey for $300 today could actually be resold next year for more than $100.

[staindsox]

I think this hobby will follow the early 90's baseball card fad. Just like 50's Topps still hold value, so too would jerseys from before 2000.

This is exactly correct. Anyone who collected through the card bubble can see how this exactly parallels what is happening with game used right now. The bubble burst because of overproduction, which is exactly what they are doing with gamers now. How many bats and jerseys do superstars now use a year? How many more a year are entering the market? This bubble is guaranteed to burst at some point in the near future too, period.

[jppopma]

Larry is spot on with missing the old days of collecting. Perfect timing as I was just today doing some research for player's numbers in some 15 year old Sports Warehouse catalogs.

To me, the thrill of the hunt and enjoying the homework were some of the best times. While many people hide behind the computer, I will say that there are alot of friendships to be made.

The biggest problem that I encounter with the ease of acquiring jerseys is that I buy way too much JUNK! Back in the day you didn't have many choices (nor money in my cases) and had to pick and choose just what jerseys you were really interested in. These days, I often find myself picking up "deals" or other things that really don't fit into a specific collecting need. Sadly, there are times where I find myself passing on jerseys that I really do like just because it is not as much of a bargain.

I wonder what the newbies think when they hear stories of collecting before the days of the internet, before ebay, when you actually had to call auction houses, before LOA's, and when people never even thought of photo matches.

[Number13]

I'm a newbie to game used, but completely understand and agree with what happened in the 90s. I was a teenager in the 80s and remembered how much fun it was collecting and going to shows and trying to find items. I stopped collecting cards completely in about 92 because of the overproduction of cards. I stopped just when inserts were becoming popular and things were more about the bottom line than just collecting. Being older, and hoping a little wiser, I think that I can enjoy collecting game used. One thing I learned from the past was that if I want to enjoy collecting I need to have a niche and stick to it. I found myself buying way too much junk back in the 80s. I'm hoping that just collecting GU #13 will bring the joy I once had when I was a bit younger. Technology has taken away some of the hunt, but, like this forum, it brings more people together across the county. Something that was much harder to do back then. I've only been on here a couple days and it is great to see that people still collect to have fun and not just for money.

[cohibasmoker]

- Supply and demand;

- Economy; and,

- Age

Supply and Demand - Back in the day, game worn/used items were far and few. Today, "gamers" are all over the place.

Economy - Unlike our government, most of us have realized that we cannot afford to spend what we don't have then look to others for a "bailout". Most of use have learned that if the economy tanks, things get tight. We are working more hours and have less money to spend on luxury items like sports memorabilia. Before we go out and spend big money on an item, we have to think about what the future holds.

Age - I am 57 years old. Back in the day when we were kids, we could NOT even afford to buy items from the "concession" stands. A cap for $2.50 was way out of our price range. As we got older, got jobs and made a few bucks, we started to acquire items we couldn't afford as kids. The 1980's is a prime example - most of us can remember the "MAJOR" cards shows that seemed to be every weekend. Shows may not be the correct word - most shows were actually "EVENTS". Whether it was called a "show" or "event", it was a time to get out and meet and greet other hobby collectors. Today, we have eBay. To prove my point, the majority of guys I knew are out of the hobby for various reasons and I can't say how much longer I'll be in the hobby. With a large segment of baby boomers dropping out of the hobby, a large block of revenue is going with them.

With a lot of the baby boomers out of the market, its now time for the next generation to drive the market. Attitudes have changed - yes we do enjoy sports but with the rise of the internet, computer games, sports scandals and iPhones, attitudes have changed. Add-in the scars from our current economy and game used stuff all over the place, only time will tell.

Just some opinions,

Jim

flaa1a@comcast.net

[frikativ54]

Age - I am 57 years old. Back in the day when we were kids, we could NOT even afford to buy items from the "concession" stands. A cap for $2.50 was way out of our price range. As we got older, got jobs and made a few bucks, we started to acquire items we couldn't afford as kids. The 1980's is a prime example - most of us can remember the "MAJOR" cards shows that seemed to be every weekend. Shows may not be the correct word - most shows were actually "EVENTS". Whether it was called a "show" or "event", it was a time to get out and meet and greet other hobby collectors. Today, we have eBay. To prove my point, the majority of guys I knew are out of the hobby for various reasons and I can't say how much longer I'll be in the hobby. With a large segment of baby boomers dropping out of the hobby, a large block of revenue is going with them.

You use the first person plural a lot, but I'm not sure to whom you are referring. You and your friends? The baby-boom generation? Collectors? Someone else?

[frikativ54]

To me, the thrill of the hunt and enjoying the homework were some of the best times.

Can someone please explain the thrill of the chase for me - at least as it involves sports memorabilia? If I want an item and can't get it, it becomes really frustrating. So much so that I may be dissuaded from collecting. I understand not wanting things to be mass produced, but I just can't comprehend frustration over having an easier time obtaining items.

Genuinely curious,

Frik

[otismalibu]

Can someone please explain the thrill of the chase for me - at least as it involves sports memorabilia? If I want an item and can't get it, it becomes really frustrating. So much so that I may be dissuaded from collecting. I understand not wanting things to be mass produced, but I just can't comprehend frustration over having an easier time obtaining items.

If there was simply a catalog with everything in it that you wanted, how much fun would that be?

I don't really collect much games used, because the player I collect, well, his stuff doesn't exactly fly under the radar. There's no real hunt involved, when items are on eBay or being sold by a major auction house.

I'll search for rare photos, where success may depend on how creative one can get with internet searches. It may take years to find a game photo from a specific game. I'm guessing this may have been how it used to be for GU stuff, before it was all laid out for the highest bidder.

[commando]

I was a teenager in the 80s and remembered how much fun it was collecting and going to shows and trying to find items. I stopped collecting cards completely in about 92 because of the overproduction of cards. I stopped just when inserts were becoming popular and things were more about the bottom line than just collecting.

I agree 100%. Most of us here used to collect cards too, and I remember suffering through the crazy, overpriced market of the 1990s. There are so many parallels between cards and GU that it's not even funny -- the main difference is that the timelines are off by about 20 years.

I have a prediction that several of you will leave the GU hobby out of frustration over the next few years, only to come back years later when prices are more reasonable (many prices ARE reasonable right now, but not on much of the newer stuff, including minor stars and hyped prospects).

One big difference between the cards hobby and GU hobby is the number of collectors. What really cemented this in my mind is the recent availability of those newer Dallas Cowboys jerseys we've seen on eBay. Even though most jerseys are common players, where are all the fans looking to buy a unique item? 100,000 people will attend a Cowboys home game, but a GU jersey on eBay won't have any bidders at $59.95? Figure out that one.

As a huge fan of cards from the 1980s, the decade of my youth, I have gone back and purchased tons of card sets at awesome prices over the past several years. Many of them are quite scarce, believe it or not. I recently started a database of card sets from the decade, just for fun. I have not yet promoted the site because I want to add a couple hundred sets first, but here's the link if anyone wants to see: http://www.1980sportscarddatabase.com

[BarryMeisel]

Hi everybody,

Obviously I am biased because I co-own and run MeiGray, and my business is game-worn jerseys. But I have a real stake in seeing the game-worn jersey market stay healthy, and I do objectively think the comparison to the card bubble of the '90s is very flawed.

And here's why ...

Twenty to 25 years ago, as the card market had boomed in the early to mid '80s, many young collectors (myself included) started buying and hoarding baseball cards in a speculative attempt to make big money.

What happened was the card companies, recognizing the increase in their pre-season orders for cases, and wax boxes and the like, cranked out huge quantities of cards to meet this speculative demand ... without divulging these increases in card population.

What DID NOT happen was an increase in the number of collectors to balance this increase in product. And so the bubble burst when anybody with a checkbook and an attic bought the cards, but could not sell the cards at a profit a few years later.

While many people have properly noted the growth of the game-worn market in terms of number of jerseys/sets of jerseys, these same people have not acknowledged that the number of collectors interested in purchasing/trading these jerseys has grown, too.

I can speak authoritatively on the hockey and baskeball markets, since we partner with the NHL and NBA and run their Game-Worn Authentication Programs. And we keep track and publicize population reports in the NHL (with teams we have team deals), and we collect information on populations in the NBA (with teams we have team deals).

If, for example, an NHL team went from 2 sets a season in the 1990s to 4 sets a season today, the collector base would have had to double for the balance to stay the same.

And that's roughly what has happened. Our NHL collector base since 2002 has grown three-fold. Our NBA collector base has doubled since 2006. I can tell you without a doubt the ratio of collectors to jerseys has stayed fairly consistent over the last 14 years, since MeiGray has been in business.

So while it seems like jerseys are much, much more readily available now (and that is true), so too are collectors in the primary and secondary markets willing to buy.

So in my opinion, the game-worn jersey market today carries no resemblance to the card market of the '90s.

I will agree that it is not as easy to make money buying and flipping game-worn jerseys as it was 20 years ago ... but that is true of any hobby moving from a small niche market (like game-worn jerseys were in the '90s) to a robust one (like it is today) ...

Respectfully,

Barry