Big Mac staying home in 2007?

[mr.miracle]

Am I the only one who doesn't consider him a true HOFer WITHOUT even counting the steriods/supplements issues???

I mean, sure, he hit a lot of home runs, but what else did he do? I know '98 was exciting, but '91 was painful!

Perhaps I'm the only one who wants more than just one dimension from a HOF player?

Ken

I guess my only question is without looking up the individual OPS/Slugging/ONBase etc. for all members of the 500 homer club, if 500 homers has been in the past an automatic ticket punch to the HOF why would McGwire steroids aside here not go in? His HR/AB ratio is I believe one of the top 2 of all time perhaps even better at this point than Babe Ruth I would need to double check that. If McGwire would not have missed nearly 3 full seasons to injury, we are looking at a 650-700 homer guy and as it stands now he nearly hit 600. I don't agree with the reference to a supersized Dave Kingman. They are not even comparable. Kingman was a horrible fielder McGwire won a gold glove and was considered better than average at 1st. Check Kingman's slugging and on base vs. McGwire. Not even close McGwire blows him away and in addition has over 100 more homers in about the same number of at bats.

Take steroids out of it and answer this, Is 500 homers no longer an instant HOF ticket punch? I don't know the answer to that but one dimensional or not the man hit 583 career homers so based on historical voting it would seem that he would have to go in if there was no steroid issues.

Brett Herman
brettherman2131@hotmail.com

[mr.miracle]

Just as a follow up, here are a few interesting stats that without the steroid argument make a clear case for Big Mac in Cooperstown.


Career Leaders for At Bats per Home Run
Leaderboard Index: Single-Season Career Active Progressive Year-by-Year League
Click on the Player for career stats and accomplishments.
+ - Indicates Hall of Famer. Bold indicates active player
* - bats left-handed, # - switch hits, ? - unknown, else - bats right-handed
Minimum of 1000 IP, 3000 PA and 100 decisions for career and active leaderboards for rate statistics. RankPlayer (age)At Bats per Home RunBats1.Mark McGwire 10.61R2.Babe Ruth+* 11.76L3.Barry Bonds* (40)12.91L4.Jim Thome* (34)13.77L5.Manny Ramirez (33)14.08R6.Ralph Kiner+ 14.11R7.Harmon Killebrew+ 14.22R8.Sammy Sosa (36)14.29R9.Alex Rodriguez (29)14.44R10.Ken Griffey* (35)14.68L11.Albert Pujols (25)14.70R12.Ted Williams+* 14.79L13.Carlos Delgado* (33)14.98L14.Juan Gonzalez (35)15.11R Dave Kingman 15.11R16.Mickey Mantle+# 15.12B17.Richie Sexson (30)15.16R18.Jimmie Foxx+ 15.23R19.Mike Schmidt+ 15.24R20.Jose Canseco 15.27RRankPlayer (age)At Bats per Home RunBats21.Albert Belle 15.36R22.Ron Kittle 15.39R23.Frank Thomas (37)15.53R24.Mike Piazza (36)15.62R25.Hank Greenberg+ 15.69R26.Willie McCovey+* 15.73L27.Troy Glaus (28)15.98R28.Vladimir Guerrero (29)16.05R29.Jay Buhner 16.17R Cecil Fielder 16.17R Darryl Strawberry* 16.17L32.Lou Gehrig+* 16.23L33.Jim Gentile* 16.32L34.Hank Aaron+ 16.38R35.Willie Mays+ 16.49R36.Jason Giambi* (34)16.53L37.Hank Sauer 16.65R38.Eddie Mathews+* 16.67L39.Willie Stargell+* 16.69L40.Jim Edmonds* (35)16.79LRankPlayer (age)At Bats per Home RunBats41.Todd Helton* (31)16.83L42.Rob Deer 16.87R Mo Vaughn* 16.87L44.Frank Howard 16.98R45.Frank Robinson+ 17.08R46.Greg Vaughn 17.19R47.Steve Balboni 17.24R48.Bob Horner 17.33R49.Jeff Bagwell (37)17.37R50.Roy Campanella+ 17.38R51.Rocky Colavito 17.39R52.Gus Zernial 17.43R53.Gorman Thomas 17.45R54.Lance Berkman# (29)17.51B Andruw Jones (28)17.51R56.Reggie Jackson+* 17.52L57.Dick Stuart 17.53R58.David Ortiz* (29)17.56L Gary Sheffield (36)17.56R60.Duke Snider+* 17.59LRankPlayer (age)At Bats per Home RunBats61.Kevin Mitchell 17.67R62.Fred McGriff* 17.76L63.Norm Cash* 17.79L64.Dean Palmer 17.83R65.Tony Clark# (33)17.93B66.Johnny Mize+* 17.95L67.Larry Walker* 18.03L68.Dick Allen 18.04R69.Jeromy Burnitz* (36)18.05L Chipper Jones# (33)18.05B71.Ernie Banks+ 18.40R Rafael Palmeiro* (40)18.40L73.David Justice* 18.44L74.Mel Ott+* 18.50L75.Matt Williams 18.52R76.Roger Maris* 18.55L77.Todd Hundley# 18.66B78.Chris Hoiles 18.68R79.J.D. Drew* (29)18.78L80.Matt Stairs* (37)18.82LRankPlayer (age)At Bats per Home RunBats81.Eric Davis 18.87R82.Joe DiMaggio+ 18.89R83.Brian Giles* (34)18.93L84.Henry Rodriguez* 18.94L85.Gil Hodges 19.00R86.Paul Konerko (29)19.02R87.Wally Post 19.08R88.Danny Tartabull 19.13R89.Mickey Tettleton# 19.18B90.Pat Burrell (28)19.28R Ryan Klesko* (34)19.28L92.Tony Conigliaro 19.40R Al Rosen 19.40R94.Hack Wilson+ 19.51R95.Glenn Davis 19.57R96.Eric Chavez* (27)19.62L97.Derrek Lee (29)19.63R98.Joe Adcock 19.66R Bob Allison 19.66R100.John Jaha 19.68R
In addition, McGwire ranks 10th all time in Slugging % everyone currently eligible for the HOF is in the HOF that is ahead of him in this catagory. His Adjusted OPS ranks 11th tied with some guy named Jimmie Foxx . One dimensional or not, if you out homer every player in MLB history in terms of homers per at bat, I think that qualifies you for a vote into the HOF. Just some food for thought. McGwire's OBP is .394 good for 70th something all time. Obviously, he did not tear up the league as a single,double and triple hitter. Although 1300 plus walks in a little over 6000 career plate appearances is not too shabby either.

Brett Herman
brettherman2131@hotmail.com

[Nathan]

I don't think 500 home runs is automatic at this point. The main "automatic" numbers are based off of what amounts to 20 years of above-average production. 300 wins is 20 years of 15 wins, 3000 hits is 20 years of 150 hits....but 500 home runs is 20 years at 25 home runs. I'd say for players who've played in the last 15-20 years, it'd have to be somewhere in the 600-700 home run range to be "automatic".

[mr.miracle]

The thing with 600 plus homers, if we look at current players and project forward, the only current players that will most likely reach 600 plus homers at this point are Ken Griffey Jr. virtually a lock, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols assuming the latter two stay healthy and that is pretty much it. Even though we have seen a great increase in the number of players putting up incredible stats, remember McGwire had only 16 total seasons and lost almost 3 full seasons to injury. If we are looking at his stats alone we are talking about nearly 600 homers in 13 seasons of baseball. That is just a staggering number. Even to play 20 years takes incredible luck, ability, etc. I know there was a great deal of debate about three years ago when Fred McGriff was on the verge of 500 career homers and I believe finished at 491 or 493. I would say in that case he would not qualify as an instant HOF player but reaching the high 500's at this point I would think would still punch ones ticket. Players like Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, etc. will run out of time to get to 600 career homers. Just my two or three cents.

Brett