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MTC
05-17-2014, 11:33 PM
Good results tonight on MLB.com auctions. A bat for over $3k, a broken bat handle for nearly $600, and two baseballs between $450-$500.

I'm guessing the days of lower-priced Trout game used memorabilia are over. I had heard the Angels were no longer selling at games but taking everything to auction. Probably a bad sign for Trout collectors.......

Thoughts?

metsbats
05-18-2014, 08:22 AM
Truly insane prices and risky investments. The only winner here is the team which profits now tremedously.

Chess2899
05-18-2014, 10:16 AM
The market will collapse. It is inevitable. The marketplace is being flooded. 100 game used jerseys per season vs. 4-8 in 1990. These are no longer investments. Stick with the old dudes.

AndersonAuthentics
05-18-2014, 10:55 AM
Good results tonight on MLB.com auctions. A bat for over $3k, a broken bat handle for nearly $600, and two baseballs between $450-$500.

I'm guessing the days of lower-priced Trout game used memorabilia are over. I had heard the Angels were no longer selling at games but taking everything to auction. Probably a bad sign for Trout collectors.......

Thoughts?

They still sell at games, but only lower end items. And keep in mind, the team doesn't get actual Trout game used aside from the balls and some of his ST bats. If you need hit balls, bases, or signed stuff, then the stadium kiosk is still the spot to buy.

The bat they sold was a bat Trout used in 2013 spring training, and the handle was from a holdover from this spring (cracked 4/6) that split with the barrel landing in the stands. Prices on Trout haven't been "low" since before his monster rookie season, ever since then these prices have been the norm.

And as for the poster assuming Trout uses 100 jerseys per year, that is incorrect. Even accounting for the one off jerseys (such as last night's military jersey or the JRD jersey), Trout uses VERY few jerseys.

gorilla777
05-18-2014, 11:35 AM
The market will collapse. It is inevitable. The marketplace is being flooded. 100 game used jerseys per season vs. 4-8 in 1990. These are no longer investments. Stick with the old dudes.

Yeah, 5 jerseys in rookie year for him

Roady
05-18-2014, 01:29 PM
If something ever happens to him and he doesn't play a full career there are going to be some very sad people.

I cannot understand spending HOF type money on a player who has payed 2 years.

xsentrixsupra
05-18-2014, 02:29 PM
If something ever happens to him and he doesn't play a full career there are going to be some very sad people.

I cannot understand spending HOF type money on a player who has payed 2 years.

Feel the same way about Puig as well. I'd like a bat or something of his, but I have a hard time shelling out that kind of money for such a young player.

Roady
05-18-2014, 05:11 PM
Feel the same way about Puig as well. I'd like a bat or something of his, but I have a hard time shelling out that kind of money for such a young player.

Just wait until his career is about over and his stuff, like Trouts, will be half or less what it is now.
I picked up a Pujols bat last year for 1/4 of what they had been selling for. People always jump to the next big thing and forget that history repeats itself.

frikativ54
05-18-2014, 05:47 PM
Just wait until his career is about over and his stuff, like Trouts, will be half or less what it is now.
I picked up a Pujols bat last year for 1/4 of what they had been selling for. People always jump to the next big thing and forget that history repeats itself.

Correct. I don't like to jump at the major prospects, because there is so much potential for disappointment. Now, if I have the rare opportunity to buy a player's first hit base, or something cool from a debut, that's a different story.

I know Trout is proven, but I can't help but think of the people who paid $2,000 to $3,000 for Dustin Ackley jerseys. I got a nice Ackley gamer this year for $150 maximum.

emann
05-18-2014, 05:59 PM
And as for the poster assuming Trout uses 100 jerseys per year, that is incorrect. Even accounting for the one off jerseys (such as last night's military jersey or the JRD jersey), Trout uses VERY few jerseys.

I agree with this comment. I don't think any team is pumping that many jerseys out per season for anyone yet... Out of any of the teams, the Tigers seem to be flooding the market with items (if I were a Tigers or Cabrerra collector, I'd be upset), but I'd doubt they even get to that number of jerseys per star player.

That said, I do think the prices are nuts for Trout/Puig. It is this weird sports collecting obsession with rookies... Solid HOF-level players aren't as exciting as the potential of an unknown I guess.

xsentrixsupra
05-18-2014, 06:21 PM
Just wait until his career is about over and his stuff, like Trouts, will be half or less what it is now.
I picked up a Pujols bat last year for 1/4 of what they had been selling for. People always jump to the next big thing and forget that history repeats itself.

Yep, I'm a big 49ers fan and it makes me question humanity when I see Kaepernick's gear going for more than Jerry Rice, or even Patrick Willis!

Chess2899
05-18-2014, 07:59 PM
I agree with this comment. I don't think any team is pumping that many jerseys out per season for anyone yet... Out of any of the teams, the Tigers seem to be flooding the market with items (if I were a Tigers or Cabrerra collector, I'd be upset), but I'd doubt they even get to that number of jerseys per star player.

That said, I do think the prices are nuts for Trout/Puig. It is this weird sports collecting obsession with rookies... Solid HOF-level players aren't as exciting as the potential of an unknown I guess.

The 100 jerseys a year was off the cuff remark. I just see an incredible escalation of jerseys. The card market did the same thing until $1500 cards fell to $10 five years later. It disturbs me when a Trout game used bat surpasses the value of my Hank Aaron game used bats from the 60s.
Its like a dynamite fuse ready to blow.
I think I will buy some popcorn, sit back and watch the show.

TwinLakesPark
05-18-2014, 08:07 PM
The market will collapse. It is inevitable. The marketplace is being flooded... These are no longer investments...

I agree 100%


Truly insane prices and risky investments. The only winner here is the team which profits now tremedously.

I think the teams are well aware of the bubble and taking full advantage of it, just like the banks did until 2006.


I cannot understand spending HOF type money on a player who has payed 2 years.

Amen.

MikeKam
05-18-2014, 09:50 PM
I just bought a Miguel Cabrera bat, do you guys think that the prices of his items will go up or down in the long run?

Considering he's a triple crown winner and likely HOFer, I'm optimistic, but seeing as how you're all mentioning the market is being flooded with items, I can't be too sure.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-18-2014, 10:08 PM
I just bought a Miguel Cabrera bat, do you guys think that the prices of his items will go up or down in the long run?

Considering he's a triple crown winner and likely HOFer, I'm optimistic, but seeing as how you're all mentioning the market is being flooded with items, I can't be too sure.

If you're talking about the Zinger bat that I told you was likely no good, I really don't think the prices will go much higher than what you paid. There are WAY too many issue with that set of bats with the odd font.

MikeKam
05-18-2014, 10:30 PM
If you're talking about the Zinger bat that I told you was likely no good, I really don't think the prices will go much higher than what you paid. There are WAY too many issue with that set of bats with the odd font.

No, it isn't that one.

Just want a general idea of what I can expect from their items and whether they're good investments. I know some of the older stars before this market became so saturated had their items go up in price once they retired/got into the HOF.

johnsontravis@ymail.com
05-18-2014, 10:36 PM
No, it isn't that one.

Just want a general idea of what I can expect from their items and whether they're good investments. I know some of the older stars before this market became so saturated had their items go up in price once they retired/got into the HOF.

No you are paying HOF price. That is what collectors are doing these days. Buying stuff at the height of a HOF players career will be top dollar. Honest Cabrera, Puid, Trout stuff can on go down at this point. It is all just so high. Something BIG would have to happen in their career other than the HOF induction.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-19-2014, 01:03 AM
No, it isn't that one.

Just want a general idea of what I can expect from their items and whether they're good investments. I know some of the older stars before this market became so saturated had their items go up in price once they retired/got into the HOF.

Full disclosure: I sold all my Cabrera game used stuff after the All-Star break last season. I can't see there being much of a market for his items due to economics.

1) Supply-side economics: Cabrera (and most stars these days) have marketing agencies who specifically exist to distribute their game used equipment. The supply increases each season, since players keep playing and creating more gamers. Unless the item is tied to a specific event (300th HR, 1500th RBI, etc) or a rookie item, it's unlikely to gain significantly in value, when adjusted for inflation. Even for stars without their own marketing agency, the teams and the MLB authentication program effectively create a ceiling on what items will be worth, since it never makes sense to buy a non-MLB authenticated gamer for more than MLB is selling the same item.

2) Demand-side economics: Cabrera is Hispanic. Traditionally, Hispanic/Latino players aren't as popular among those who are willing to blow money on game used items. This is visible by looking at the value of Clemente items relative to those of his peer group. Cabrera is special, due to the Triple Crown connection, but the fact that the MLB media and analysts constantly talk about Mike Trout being "once in a generation" talent reflects this bias against Hispanic/Latino players. Similar to how collectors/HOF voters have an East Coast bias (perceived or real), there is a similar bias against Hispanic players. Couple that with his best years coming in the mid-West, and the values of his items probably won't be in great enough demand to be a viable investment.

I was shocked when I saw people asking north of $1000 for Cabrera gamer bats. Once I saw those prices, I sold my cleats, my jersey and my three bats. Why? I bought the items early in his career due to seeing him as a feisty player who could see the ball better than most. I think for all my items, I paid about $1500. I sold everything for about $5000. It simply was not worth "having a part of Miggy's career" for such a high price.

I'm really curious about what the media will do when Trout goes down with another extended injury, though. If the game used memorabilia market were somewhat rational, I'd say start buying Bryce Harper items. Unfortunately, when he started coming up short of expectations, the prices didn't follow suit. Why? Because speculators refuse to believe that they overpaid by 50% (or more) for something, and are willing to "wait it out" to simply not be at a loss.

Now, if you found a legitimate Cabrera signed gamer with true Miggy use characteristics for $400 or so, then, yes, you will likely make your money back. However, if you paid over $700 for a marginal (at best) bat, you're probably going to be holding onto it for a while unless Abreu's injury lasts more than a month. That might be long enough for Miggy to make it back to front-runner for the MVP award for a third consecutive year.

calmanagement
05-19-2014, 09:17 AM
Full disclosure: I sold all my Cabrera game used stuff after the All-Star break last season. I can't see there being much of a market for his items due to economics.

1) Supply-side economics: Cabrera (and most stars these days) have marketing agencies who specifically exist to distribute their game used equipment. The supply increases each season, since players keep playing and creating more gamers. Unless the item is tied to a specific event (300th HR, 1500th RBI, etc) or a rookie item, it's unlikely to gain significantly in value, when adjusted for inflation. Even for stars without their own marketing agency, the teams and the MLB authentication program effectively create a ceiling on what items will be worth, since it never makes sense to buy a non-MLB authenticated gamer for more than MLB is selling the same item.

Cabrera does not have a marketing agency that distributes his gu items. The Tigers Authentics Department controls his hit balls, jerseys & bats. His cleats that have hit the market are from DC sports (exclusive auto agreement) or through Miggy personal connections. The only item of Miggy's that is saturating the market are game used jerseys, however, demand has been there for now so prices remain elevated.

As far as bats go he is one of the absolute toughest to obtain. He rarely is fooled on pitches and doesn't break many bats. So far through 39 games this season Miggy has broken two (2) bats!!! One hit auction this past week and sold for $2,510. The other was given to a fan in Minnesota after the game. In 2013 Miggy only broke 8 bats. That's 10 MLB authenticated bats from the last 201 games. A bat from 2012-2014 that is MLB authenticated will never sell below $1,500 again. Ever!!! If Miggy continues this legendary pace these bats will probably continue to sell for far more than the $1,500 benchmark.

2) Demand-side economics: Cabrera is Hispanic. Traditionally, Hispanic/Latino players aren't as popular among those who are willing to blow money on game used items. This is visible by looking at the value of Clemente items relative to those of his peer group. Cabrera is special, due to the Triple Crown connection, but the fact that the MLB media and analysts constantly talk about Mike Trout being "once in a generation" talent reflects this bias against Hispanic/Latino players. Similar to how collectors/HOF voters have an East Coast bias (perceived or real), there is a similar bias against Hispanic players. Couple that with his best years coming in the mid-West, and the values of his items probably won't be in great enough demand to be a viable investment.

BS BS BS. I give no credence to your Hispanic/Latino claim whatsoever. While Detroit's payroll is up with the big boys the market is more local than national. If Miggy was a Yankee, Dodger, Red Sox than his bats would be selling for $5k each.


Now, if you found a legitimate Cabrera signed gamer with true Miggy use characteristics for $400 or so, then, yes, you will likely make your money back. However, if you paid over $700 for a marginal (at best) bat, you're probably going to be holding onto it for a while unless Abreu's injury lasts more than a month. That might be long enough for Miggy to make it back to front-runner for the MVP award for a third consecutive year.

Hahahahahahahahaha. Anybody that wants to sell me a Miggy gamer for $700 please contact me immediately. I will buy every mlb authenticated bat you have (Tigers Years).

johnsontravis@ymail.com
05-19-2014, 11:23 AM
Full disclosure: Now, if you found a legitimate Cabrera signed gamer with true Miggy use characteristics for $400 or so, then, yes, you will likely make your money back. However, if you paid over $700 for a marginal (at best) bat, you're probably going to be holding onto it for a while unless Abreu's injury lasts more than a month. That might be long enough for Miggy to make it back to front-runner for the MVP award for a third consecutive year.

Abreu? MVP? Injury or not his chances at the MVP are very very unlikely. For starters his team needs to make the playoffs and then he needs better stats...mostly concerning average.

Abreu is a great player, but at the end of the season I can't even see him in the conversation. It is all start of the season hype, it will come back down soon enough.

frikativ54
05-19-2014, 02:28 PM
It's interesting: I talked with the Astros a few days ago, and they are having their best players wear more jerseys, "to meet demand." While, for your average collector, who just wants a shirt off Jose Altuve's back, that's okay, for me, this is an unwelcome development.

They won't have Altuve wear a jersey a game, or anything like that, but even Houston, which has historically not churned out jerseys, is seeing the value of having players wear more shirts. Per Twitter, Altuve's Sunday alternate will be on MLB.com Auctions shortly.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-19-2014, 07:34 PM
Abreu? MVP? Injury or not his chances at the MVP are very very unlikely. For starters his team needs to make the playoffs and then he needs better stats...mostly concerning average.

Abreu is a great player, but at the end of the season I can't even see him in the conversation. It is all start of the season hype, it will come back down soon enough.

That isn't really what I meant to imply. If Abreu wins the HR crown (which isn't exactly unlikely), it stands to reason that MVP voters will say "Oh, it's easy to put up offense in the AL Central" not realizing that the playing in Cellular Field has a lot to do with it, as well.

MikeKam
05-19-2014, 07:48 PM
That isn't really what I meant to imply. If Abreu wins the HR crown (which isn't exactly unlikely), it stands to reason that MVP voters will say "Oh, it's easy to put up offense in the AL Central" not realizing that the playing in Cellular Field has a lot to do with it, as well.

Cabrera is having a much better offensive season than Abreu. Only thing Abreu has going for him are home runs.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-19-2014, 08:46 PM
Cabrera is having a much better offensive season than Abreu. Only thing Abreu has going for him are home runs.

This statement is about as far from accurate as you can be. Cabrera and Abreu have approximately the same value as players this season. Cabrera's wOBA is .383, while Abreu's is .377. Given that Abreu's BABiP is about 75 points lower than Cabrera's, the two are having very similar seasons, with Abreu suffering from a lot more bad luck. Cabrera's walk rates are well off his career averages, and, so far this season, he hasn't really been Cabrera-like.

The reason this doesn't exactly bode well for Cabrera is the fact that he is normally a fast starter.

While good, and possibly All-Star good, .315/.357/.532 isn't really MVP-caliber. Remember, Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 in 2011, and he finished 5th in the MVP voting.

I'm not advocating for Abreu to win the MVP award or even suggesting he's in contention for it, but I will hold to my statement that a healthy Abreu has a negative impact on Miggy's chances of the three-peat.

That said, offense has come at such a premium this year, that it's possible Yu Darvish might be the front-runner heading into the All-Star break. He's currently on pace for a WAR in the 9+ range.

STLHAMMER32
05-19-2014, 08:56 PM
This is a unique market full of variables to consider.....especially game used bat and fielding glove markets.

The game used card market crashed largely due to the mass exodus to full game used items instead of pieces in my opinion...

Card collecting in general was/is popular because fans want to have something tied to their favorite players. If collectors bail on game used items something must provide a better alternative to get "closer" to the game and player.....besides a scenario like Robert De Niro in the movie The Fan, I don't know how much closer you can get to being a part of the game.


Most players are extremely picky when it comes to two items in particular bats and fielding gloves.....Most players treat their playing gloves like a child and they carefully broken-in to their feel until deemed "game-ready" and from that point on they are to be only handled by a select few any within the team. Bats are usually weighed, prepped, sometimes even blessed and then separated for gamers and bp bats by most players. You will catch players talking to bats, handling bats in between at bats, kissing bats, etc....

Jerseys, cleats, batting gloves, caps, batting helmets are much less personal for most players although everyone has their quirks obviously....for these items teams can mass produce, issue new items, switch each game and flood the market. Good luck getting a player to switch fielding gloves during the year or have a player use multiple bats when they have a bat that feels right at the plate......

True gamers for bats and fielding gloves in my opinion have much less of a chance to "crash" because there will always only be a limited quantity of legitimate actual game used items specifically for these two categories. Game issued would be a different story since bat companies produce more bats and gloves than ever hoping to have the marketing of a MLB player using their equipment.

MikeKam
05-19-2014, 09:20 PM
This statement is about as far from accurate as you can be. Cabrera and Abreu have approximately the same value as players this season. Cabrera's wOBA is .383, while Abreu's is .377. Given that Abreu's BABiP is about 75 points lower than Cabrera's, the two are having very similar seasons, with Abreu suffering from a lot more bad luck. Cabrera's walk rates are well off his career averages, and, so far this season, he hasn't really been Cabrera-like.

The reason this doesn't exactly bode well for Cabrera is the fact that he is normally a fast starter.

While good, and possibly All-Star good, .315/.357/.532 isn't really MVP-caliber. Remember, Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 in 2011, and he finished 5th in the MVP voting.

I'm not advocating for Abreu to win the MVP award or even suggesting he's in contention for it, but I will hold to my statement that a healthy Abreu has a negative impact on Miggy's chances of the three-peat.

That said, offense has come at such a premium this year, that it's possible Yu Darvish might be the front-runner heading into the All-Star break. He's currently on pace for a WAR in the 9+ range.

Well if you want to talk WAR, Cabrera already has a higher WAR with 5 less games played. He started the season (first 20ish games) terribly, but since then he has looked like his usual MVP-self.

xpress34
05-19-2014, 10:08 PM
This is a unique market full of variables to consider.....especially game used bat and fielding glove markets.

The game used card market crashed largely due to the mass exodus to full game used items instead of pieces in my opinion...

Card collecting in general was/is popular because fans want to have something tied to their favorite players. If collectors bail on game used items something must provide a better alternative to get "closer" to the game and player.....besides a scenario like Robert De Niro in the movie The Fan, I don't know how much closer you can get to being a part of the game.


Most players are extremely picky when it comes to two items in particular bats and fielding gloves.....Most players treat their playing gloves like a child and they carefully broken-in to their feel until deemed "game-ready" and from that point on they are to be only handled by a select few any within the team. Bats are usually weighed, prepped, sometimes even blessed and then separated for gamers and bp bats by most players. You will catch players talking to bats, handling bats in between at bats, kissing bats, etc....

Jerseys, cleats, batting gloves, caps, batting helmets are much less personal for most players although everyone has their quirks obviously....for these items teams can mass produce, issue new items, switch each game and flood the market. Good luck getting a player to switch fielding gloves during the year or have a player use multiple bats when they have a bat that feels right at the plate......

True gamers for bats and fielding gloves in my opinion have much less of a chance to "crash" because there will always only be a limited quantity of legitimate actual game used items specifically for these two categories. Game issued would be a different story since bat companies produce more bats and gloves than ever hoping to have the marketing of a MLB player using their equipment.

STL -

I highlighted BATTING HELMETS, because with the introduction SPC100 last year, unless a player breaks his helmet, he will more than likely use the same helmet from Spring Training until the end of the season. At $600.00 each (team cost with custom paint and decals), they won't be 'mass producing' batting helmets.

The Old 'Cool Flo' and the helmets before that cost the teams about $125 or so each - less than the cost of a jersey.

Just wanted to put that out there.

- Smitty

emann
05-19-2014, 10:40 PM
STL -

I highlighted BATTING HELMETS, because with the introduction SPC100 last year, unless a player breaks his helmet, he will more than likely use the same helmet from Spring Training until the end of the season. At $600.00 each (team cost with custom paint and decals), they won't be 'mass producing' batting helmets.

The Old 'Cool Flo' and the helmets before that cost the teams about $125 or so each - less than the cost of a jersey.

Just wanted to put that out there.


Most teams in the '13 postseason switched star player's helmets out from the regular season ones, I don't think this is an issue, but I wouldn't be surprised if certain teams start pulling helmets for each postseason series or game...

danesei@yahoo.com
05-20-2014, 06:38 PM
Well if you want to talk WAR, Cabrera already has a higher WAR with 5 less games played. He started the season (first 20ish games) terribly, but since then he has looked like his usual MVP-self.

I only mentioned WAR, since I don't know how to compare wOBA for hitters to xFIP for pitchers. I don't think the voters look at WAR, but they do seem to trend toward awarding good wOBA numbers.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-20-2014, 06:40 PM
Hahahahahahahahaha. Anybody that wants to sell me a Miggy gamer for $700 please contact me immediately. I will buy every mlb authenticated bat you have (Tigers Years).

That's the point. MLB authenticated bats aren't what are selling for the $700 range. Maybe Mike can offer some insight here. I know the original bat that I said was no good had no MLB authentication and even had somewhat questionable origin (looked like a sample bat). Is the new bat that you bought MLB authenticated, Mike?

danesei@yahoo.com
05-20-2014, 06:43 PM
Also, Cabrera *did* have a management company while with the Marlins. That's why so much of his GU stuff is from Hollywood Collectibles from that period.

MikeKam
05-20-2014, 06:59 PM
That's the point. MLB authenticated bats aren't what are selling for the $700 range. Maybe Mike can offer some insight here. I know the original bat that I said was no good had no MLB authentication and even had somewhat questionable origin (looked like a sample bat). Is the new bat that you bought MLB authenticated, Mike?

No, the previous one that I asked about eventually sold for $550 I believe. There's been another Miggy Zinger bat that has been put up on eBay several times in the past few weeks that is going for $200-300 continuously. Both of these bats however have been deemed likely not authentic by people I trust on gamers.

R. C. Walker
05-20-2014, 08:30 PM
Just wait until his career is about over and his stuff, like Trouts, will be half or less what it is now.
I picked up a Pujols bat last year for 1/4 of what they had been selling for. People always jump to the next big thing and forget that history repeats itself.

That’s the truth. Trout, Puig & Harper are the next Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Josh Hamilton (when was the last time you saw his name on this forum?), Stephen Strasberg and yes, Albert Pujols.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-20-2014, 10:08 PM
That’s the truth. Trout, Puig & Harper are the next Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Josh Hamilton (when was the last time you saw his name on this forum?), Stephen Strasberg and yes, Albert Pujols.

Two of the names on the latter list (Pujols & Guerrero) are likely HOFers. Similarly, two of the names on the former list (Trout & Harper) are potential HOFers. Puig's off-field antics will eventually land him in the doghouse with Mattingly... it's just a matter of time.

R. C. Walker
05-21-2014, 12:06 AM
Two of the names on the latter list (Pujols & Guerrero) are likely HOFers. Similarly, two of the names on the former list (Trout & Harper) are potential HOFers. Puig's off-field antics will eventually land him in the doghouse with Mattingly... it's just a matter of time.

Point is, big money being spent on Trout is similar to the mania seen in the past. Prime example is Josh Hamilton. Many are feeling the sting if they were making an "investment".

Trout's an extemely good player yet has not had 100 RBI. Bryce Harper topped off at 59 with a career average around .270 and seems to be injury prone. Potential HOFers? Not quite. Collectors are paying Hall of Fame prices though. Doesn't make sence.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-21-2014, 01:45 AM
Point is, big money being spent on Trout is similar to the mania seen in the past. Prime example is Josh Hamilton. Many are feeling the sting if they were making an "investment".

I don't see how one could say Trout/Harper are the same as Hamilton. Abreu or Cespedes, maybe, but not Trout/Harper. Hamilton's first season was at age 26. Trout and Harper each have two seasons under their belts, and they haven't even reached the age Hamilton was when he made his MLB debut (25 yrs 316 days old). Hamilton's memorabilia (just like Ryan Howard's) was over-priced due to a very late start to his career. Bryce Harper turns 22 two and a half weeks after the Nationals play the final game of their regular season, and he's played just over half his career games batting second in the order. Trout is a year and two months older than Harper. The point in both cases is they have a few years before they reach the age Hamilton made his debut at. He's not a good comparable.

I said Pujols and Guerrero were good comps, but even those two made their debuts after turning 21. Griffey might be a better comp, but only because his career started at 19, as well.

Trout/Harper may never fulfill the perception of their potentials, but even if they fall well short, they're likely to have better careers than Hamilton.

carbonrosa
05-22-2014, 08:21 PM
I'm a huge Trout and Harper fan. What bothers me the most about collecting anything Trout, is the fact that on any given day you can find a 2012 or 2013 bat for sale either through auctions or more importantly on ebay. Every owner asking HOF prices for these bats with almost all of them being made in January which tells me Trout dumps all his spring training bats to sell through Anderson Authentic's. It's obvious Trout understands their's a market for his equipment where he can profit from. On top of that since coming up, he has done 11 private signings not including team signings. Nothing wrong with any of that but as a fan trying to own one of his bats, I get a little scared paying $3000 to $4000 for a spring training bat not knowing how many of his bats will be out there in 10 years? Say what you want about Bryce Harper but at least you don't see him doing this. Finding a true game used bat is very hard and Harper has done 1 private signing dating back to 2010. It makes spending money on a Harper bat or getting a signature a little easier knowing the quantity of quality stuff out there of his is way lower.

swainer
05-23-2014, 09:20 AM
I get a little scared paying $3000 to $4000 for a spring training bat not knowing how many of his bats will be out there in 10 years? Say what you want about Bryce Harper but at least you don't see him doing this.

Harper has donated bats to a college team in Nevada. I'd bet some of these have already hit the market as game used.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2013/mar/27/bryce-harper-marucci-bats-vegas/

AndersonAuthentics
05-23-2014, 12:00 PM
which tells me Trout dumps all his spring training bats to sell through Anderson Authentic's. It's obvious Trout understands their's a market for his equipment where he can profit from.

Apparently you don't know much about Trout's game used items and are making random assumptions. Let me state this as public knowledge so there isn't any more confusion-

Starting in 2013, MT27 model codes are bats he used in Spring Training. MT27* are bats he used in the regular season. He gets a set # of bats per year to use, the majority of which are made before the season (in 2013, they were made in January). If he gets low or thinks he may need more, he will get an extra dozen or two later in the year. Mike uses LESS than 6 dozen bats per year in the regular season.

AndersonAuthentics
05-23-2014, 12:07 PM
Point is, big money being spent on Trout is similar to the mania seen in the past. Prime example is Josh Hamilton. Many are feeling the sting if they were making an "investment".

Trout's an extemely good player yet has not had 100 RBI. Bryce Harper topped off at 59 with a career average around .270 and seems to be injury prone. Potential HOFers? Not quite. Collectors are paying Hall of Fame prices though. Doesn't make sence.

We judge players now on hitting the 100 RBI platform? Haha. Can't be serious. 70 homers, 82 doubles, 21 triples, 91 steals, 200+ walks, .309 career average, 446 hits, and 287 runs all at the age of 22. 4 years younger than Hamilton when he took his first MLB swing. People investing in Trout are going after longevity, the counting stats adding up and his chance at being a 3k+ hit/500+ HR player. Of anybody in the game today, Trout is the one who has the best chance at not only being a HOFer, but a legend.

PAC
05-23-2014, 12:20 PM
Point is, big money being spent on Trout is similar to the mania seen in the past. Prime example is Josh Hamilton. Many are feeling the sting if they were making an "investment".

Josh Hamilton was a goldmine...if you invested in him while he was facedown in that mountain of cocaine he bought with his Devil Rays money.

danesei@yahoo.com
05-23-2014, 02:37 PM
We judge players now on hitting the 100 RBI platform? Haha. Can't be serious. 70 homers, 82 doubles, 21 triples, 91 steals, 200+ walks, .309 career average, 446 hits, and 287 runs all at the age of 22. 4 years younger than Hamilton when he took his first MLB swing. People investing in Trout are going after longevity, the counting stats adding up and his chance at being a 3k+ hit/500+ HR player. Of anybody in the game today, Trout is the one who has the best chance at not only being a HOFer, but a legend.

This actually bothers me. Let's assume Trout becomes Mantle. What do Mays gamers sell for? $6500, according to PSA. If Trout gamers sell for $3000 today, basically you're expecting to double your money by the time Trout retires (37?). So, 15 years to maybe get a 100% return on your "investment."

Let's say we pick Mantle instead of Mays as the baseline. Aug 2013, a Mantle gamer sold for $18.5k in a Heritage Auction. Assuming 0 percent consignment fee (due to a Mantle bat having positive value on marketing the auction; 15 per cent is the cap), the consignor made $15.5k on the transaction. That would be a 400%+ gain on the transaction.

Now we must deal with the issue of economics.


Starting in 2013, MT27 model codes are bats he used in Spring Training. MT27* are bats he used in the regular season. He gets a set # of bats per year to use, the majority of which are made before the season (in 2013, they were made in January). If he gets low or thinks he may need more, he will get an extra dozen or two later in the year. Mike uses LESS than 6 dozen bats per year in the regular season.

So, Trout uses less than 72 bats during the regular season, which would be 40 per cent less than the average number of bats ordered by a player, according to the Louisville Slugger website FAQ (http://www.sluggermuseum.com/faq/). I have no reason to doubt your numbers, but since you're privy to the number of bats Trout uses in a season, do you also know how many actually enter MLB play, how many are practice bats, and how many are ordered by Trout but never used? I would guess the answer is yes, and since you're trying to make information public knowledge, maybe you could share those numbers, as well, to give a better estimate of how many "game issued" bats might potentially hit the market.

At the peak of his playing days ordering, Mays is recorded as ordering 188 bats in a season (1971). By contrast, Mantle saw a playing days peak of 75 bats (1964). I'd guess that a 10 per cent survival rate for gamers from Mays or Mantle might be high, but for argument's sake, I'm going to use that number. Let's assume 10 per cent of Mantle (759 total ordered) and Mays (2048 total ordered) gamers have survived time and are available to the market. That would mean there are 76 Mantle and 205 Mays bats available to the marketplace. That would also mean there are currently more Trout gamers in the market than Mantle gamers for his career, and by the All-Star break this year, there should be more Trout gamers than Mays gamers, as well. I think it's pretty easy to see that the supply of Trout gamers (and any other player for that matter) will dwarf the combined supply of these two Hall of Fame players by the time Trout "retires a legend."

The speculation on Trout's items right now will only make sense if someone assumes the market for modern gamers will also dwarf the market for items of established legends. I don't see that happening.

Roady
05-23-2014, 03:51 PM
We judge players now on hitting the 100 RBI platform? Haha. Can't be serious. 70 homers, 82 doubles, 21 triples, 91 steals, 200+ walks, .309 career average, 446 hits, and 287 runs all at the age of 22. 4 years younger than Hamilton when he took his first MLB swing. People investing in Trout are going after longevity, the counting stats adding up and his chance at being a 3k+ hit/500+ HR player. Of anybody in the game today, Trout is the one who has the best chance at not only being a HOFer, but a legend.

Wow! He may want to hit above .270 this year first.

Trout has all the talent in the world. He is very good.

I remember Gregg Jefferies.

Roady
05-23-2014, 03:56 PM
And as his official dealer of game used items AndersonAuthentics is not exactly unbiased in this matter.
Legend? That is a big word.

But the bigger the buzz the bigger the prices realized.

R. C. Walker
05-23-2014, 05:49 PM
We judge players now on hitting the 100 RBI platform? Haha. Can't be serious. 70 homers, 82 doubles, 21 triples, 91 steals, 200+ walks, .309 career average, 446 hits, and 287 runs all at the age of 22. 4 years younger than Hamilton when he took his first MLB swing. People investing in Trout are going after longevity, the counting stats adding up and his chance at being a 3k+ hit/500+ HR player. Of anybody in the game today, Trout is the one who has the best chance at not only being a HOFer, but a legend.

Sorry. Thought 100 RBI's was one of the platforms which we judged a player's productivity.

I'll consider your .302 lifetime AVG. Just as good as Magglio Ordonez.

Name Batting Average Rank
Ty Cobb .366 (.36636) 1
Rogers Hornsby .358 (.35850) 2
Joe Jackson .356 (.35575) 3
Ed Delahanty .346 (.34590) 4
Tris Speaker .345 (.34468) 5
Ted Williams .344 (.34441) 6
Billy Hamilton .344 (.34429) 7
Babe Ruth .342 (.34206) 8
Harry Heilmann .342 (.34159) 9
Pete Browning .341 (.34149) 10
Willie Keeler .341 (.34129) 11
Bill Terry .341 (.34116) 12
George Sisler .340 (.34015) 13
Lou Gehrig .340 (.34008) 14
Nap Lajoie .339 (.33914) 15
Jesse Burkett .338 (.33844) 16
Tony Gwynn .338 (.33818) 17
Riggs Stephenson .336 (.33607) 18
Dan Brouthers .335 (.33509) 19
Al Simmons .334 (.33417) 20
John McGraw .334 (.33359) 21
Paul Waner .333 (.33323) 22
Eddie Collins .333 (.33320) 23
Mike Donlin .333 (.33264) 24
Cap Anson .331 (.33084) 25
Stan Musial .331 (.33084)
Heinie Manush .330 (.32976) 27
Wade Boggs .328 (.32789) 28
Rod Carew .328 (.32775) 29
Honus Wagner .327 (.32742) 30
Sam Thompson .327 (.32712) 31
Tip O'Neill .326 (.32573) 32
Bob Fothergill .325 (.32548) 33
Jimmie Foxx .325 (.32530) 34
Earle Combs .325 (.32475) 35
Joe DiMaggio .325 (.32459) 36
Babe Herman .324 (.32447) 37
Hugh Duffy .324 (.32406) 38
Joe Medwick .324 (.32364) 39
Edd Roush .323 (.32269) 40
Sam Rice .322 (.32226) 41
Ross Youngs .322 (.32224) 42
Joe Mauer .322 (.32163) 43
Kiki Cuyler .321 (.32104) 44
Miguel Cabrera .321 (.32097) 45
Charlie Gehringer .320 (.32043) 46
Chuck Klein .320 (.32007) 47
Albert Pujols .320 (.31986) 48
Pie Traynor .320 (.31962) 49
Mickey Cochrane .320 (.31960) 50
Ken Williams .319 (.31921) 51
Ichiro Suzuki .319 (.31903) 52
Kirby Puckett .318 (.31806) 53
Earl Averill .318 (.31780) 54
Vladimir Guerrero .318 (.31760) 55
Arky Vaughan .318 (.31758) 56
Roberto Clemente .317 (.31733) 57
Chick Hafey .317 (.31697) 58
Joe Kelley .317 (.31687) 59
Zack Wheat .317 (.31671) 60
George Van Haltren .317 (.31654) 61
Lloyd Waner .316 (.31639) 62
Todd Helton .316 (.31638) 63
Frankie Frisch .316 (.31607) 64
Goose Goslin .316 (.31597) 65
Bibb Falk .314 (.31449) 66
Cecil Travis .314 (.31420) 67
Hank Greenberg .313 (.31350) 68
Jack Fournier .313 (.31317) 69
Elmer Flick .313 (.31302) 70
Nomar Garciaparra .313 (.31275) 71
Larry Walker .313 (.31273) 72
Bill Dickey .313 (.31254) 73
Dale Mitchell .312 (.31225) 74
Manny Ramirez .312 (.31223) 75
Johnny Mize .312 (.31212) 76
Joe Sewell .312 (.31211) 77
Fred Clarke .312 (.31186) 78
Barney McCosky .312 (.31184) 79
Derek Jeter .312 (.31169) 80
Edgar Martinez .312 (.31152) 81
Hughie Jennings .311 (.31138) 82
Freddie Lindstrom .311 (.31135) 83
Bing Miller .311 (.31133) 84
Jackie Robinson .311 (.31126) 85
Baby Doll Jacobson .311 (.31124) 86
Taffy Wright .311 (.31119) 87
Rip Radcliff .311 (.31100) 88
Ginger Beaumont .311 (.31078) 89
Denny Lyons .310 (.31043) 90
Elmer Smith .310 (.31042) 91
Luke Appling .310 (.31041) 92
Irish Meusel .310 (.31041)
Matt Holliday .310 (.31001) 94
Bobby Veach .310 (.30995) 95
Roger Connor .310 (.30988) 96
Jim Bottomley .310 (.30960) 97
John Stone .310 (.30952) 98
Robinson Cano .309 (.30946) 99
Sam Crawford .309 (.30940) 100
Bob Meusel .309 (.30922) 101
Magglio Ordonez .309 (.30897) 102

lengthwise1
05-23-2014, 06:03 PM
I remember Gregg Jefferies.


hahaha, so true...

danesei@yahoo.com
05-23-2014, 08:51 PM
Sorry. Thought 100 RBI's was one of the platforms which we judged a player's productivity.

I'll consider your .302 lifetime AVG. Just as good as Magglio Ordonez.

30/30 100 Runs scored at age 20 is impressive. Nearly repeating the feat at age 21, even more so. I agree that AndersonAuthentics is biased and making grandiose claims to drive prices higher, but to say he's faulty for not having a 100 RBI season (even though he got close at 97) is a bit askew. He generated 68 RBI in 136 AB with RISP last season. He averaged an RBI per two ABs with RISP. I think Trout is overrated, and even I think those numbers are great.