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MVP
11-30-2006, 09:28 AM
I am curious to know if people think the game used market is "depressed"? If so, what are the reasons? Will it rebound?

I seems that both the all star player game used stuff and lower level players stuff has dropped quite a bit over the last few years. You would see modern star jerseys going for $1500+ a few years ago and now only around $800+. Mediocre players used to go for $150+ and now are around $100.

The older stuff seems to still be strong.

What are the reasons? more supply than demand?

-Henry

allstarsplus
11-30-2006, 10:49 AM
Great question. The law of economics of supply and demand will determine overall what happens to the game used market. There is certainly more game used items on the market today (supply) then there were 5 years ago so the bigger question is if there are more buyers today (demand).

Then you have to look at each player and their supply/demand. Pujols, Ripken, Jeter, Ryan Howard are names always mentioned here and their demand is high with a low supply of "real" items. Now if Pujols dumped 100 game used bats on the market today I would think his prices would drop.

Here is a great example from Kylehess with Jose Guillen batting gloves---70 pairs of gloves and they keep getting bids but prices have certainly dropped over time because of supply and demand:

kylehess10 (http://www.gameuseduniverse.com/vb_forum/member.php?u=918) http://www.gameuseduniverse.com/vb_forum/images/statusicon/user_offline.gif Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 345
http://www.gameuseduniverse.com/vb_forum/images/icons/icon1.gif Jose Guillen 2005 Batting Gloves.....
ESM has listed on eBay atleast 70 pairs of Jose Guillen 2005 game worn batting gloves since I think January and they are currently still listing more every week!!


My favorite observation of supply/demand and market equilibrium was when Steiner 1st starting selling the Mark McGwire signed baseballs. There was a major shortage of "real" McGwire sigs and when the signed baseballs hit eBay they were initially selling for over $800. Now they are hitting $300+ on eBay. There was a time on eBay I had seen them at the upper $200's.

RobSteinmetz
11-30-2006, 11:14 AM
Good points, Andrew. We're definitely experiencing a correction in the modern market, especially in major auctions. Does anyone attribute lower prices realized on modern jerseys and equipment to trust issues with specific auction houses, the authenticators they use, and the fact that (in most cases) all sales are final? What about the fact that there are now fewer card companies buying game used memorabilia in major auctions? Personally, I think there are many factors at play, but I'm interested in other people's opinions.

ahuff
11-30-2006, 11:29 AM
I know I have vowed to never purchase from an auction house that uses Lou Lampson, just due to my past dealings with his authentications, so I am sure that has influenced some of the market correction.

Also, were there use to be just two or three jersey sets, for each style, we have seen upwards of 20 in the Blue Jays orginization, and who knows about the likes of Manny, Bonds, Tejada, and others that sell their items to ESM or on their own. Definately an increase in supply.

But how about this. . .the tagging indicators on many game used items has decreased. Take, for instance, the Rockies. I have purchased many Rockies items over the years. There use to be a paper year tag on each of the jerseys I purchased. Not only was this a great indicator to look for to determine the season it was worn and a clue to its authenticity, but it also showed the extent of the wear. Now, there seems to only be the 0062 tag and sometimes there is the MLB hologram on them. The hologram has been proven to be inaccurate, at times, and now fraudulent people have begun flooding the market with bogus jerseys that they have simply sewn a 0062 tag on. To me, it is harder to determine the season many of the jerseys were worn, unless there is a commemorative patch, and even harder to tell the amount of wear the jersey has seen.

Utopian2630
11-30-2006, 11:36 AM
Hey Everyone,

I happen to agree with AllStarsPlus in that supply and demand affect the way the game-used market has been. Though I've only been seriously collecting game used merchandise for 12 years, I am sure many of our more experienced forum members can remember a time when dealers who specialized in game-used memorabilia were few and far between. I can remember card shows where you'd find ONE...maybe TWO dealers selling game-used memorabilia, now I'm sure most card shows have dozens. Also things like the internet (eBay other auction sites) come into play. If you went back to those times when you'd find a handful of game-used dealers on the market, you might be willing to pay their price since they were the only dealers. Now, consumers have more options to find game-used memorabilia. Unfortunately, the internet also opens the doors for fraud, because more information about the specifics of game-used items become available. Thank about it, would the average collector 12 years ago have instant access to finding out a certain player's jersey size, length and any other individual characteristics?

Basically, I guess that’s my long-winded way of saying supply and demand...not much going on at work today so I guess I have time to ramble on! :)

allstarsplus
11-30-2006, 11:45 AM
I know I have vowed to never purchase from an auction house that uses Lou Lampson, just due to my past dealings with his authentications, so I am sure that has influenced some of the market correction.

This Forum has so many passionate buyers that probably feel the same as you do.

It seems every Cal Ripken jersey on the market has a Lampson COA which in my opinion has unfairly put a lower market value on those items.

As a seller that consigns to auction houses, I won't consign to an auction house if Lou is authenticating for the reason I think I would lose bidders which would affect my final price.

allstarsplus
11-30-2006, 11:57 AM
A friend just called me about this thread to say the market strength is stronger than ever in unique items and referred to the $50,000 to $100,000 estimate on that Bonds 715 HR ball that sold for $220,100!!!!!

http://cgi.ebay.com/Barry-Bonds-No-715-Home-Run-Baseball_W0QQitemZ250011277695QQihZ015QQcategoryZ7 3418QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

That is a great point and probably pertains to a lot of the one-of-a-kind items and vintage pieces. Again it is supply vs. demand. If there is only 1 item, and 4 or 5 passionate bidders like there was on that Bonds ball, the final price should go up.

The same with the special Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, and Shoeless Joe Jackson pieces that have sold for huge money.

JimCaravello
11-30-2006, 03:28 PM
My personal opinion is that the post 80 bat and jersey game used market is taking a bath right now.......too much product out there.....a great example is that Steiner has flooded the market with Yankees jerseys. The Vintage market is still strong - although the annual increase on call it game used bat and jersey items from the 60's - 80's has been nominal. The pre-1960 - High Grade - Star bat and Jersey market is very strong..........Jim

kingjammy24
11-30-2006, 04:16 PM
given a free market, prices are always indicative of supply vs. demand. unfortunately, that doesn't really say much to explain either the current supply or the current demand. some thoughts:

- the older stuff is more attractive on many levels and is going hold value better. for one, it hails from a time when players seem to have been issued and used fewer jerseys. not only does this restrict the supply, but it also means the older jerseys tend to show far more use. secondly, the supply back then wasn't being artificially pumped up by people with access to pro-spec jerseys looking to make money.

- the supply of jerseys has obviously increased dramatically. mlb, teams, players, etc seem to be getting in on the market by increasing the supply. unfortunately, they're too short-sighted to realize that by doing this is killing the long term potential. it's no different than the baseball card scenario of the 90s. cards were in demand and card companies responded by pumping out cards by the bushel. you could tell they had some brilliant folks at the controls. "let's make lots of dough in the short term even if it means completely killing the entire business in the long term". i can't see how modern gamers aren't going to eventually go down a similar path. everybody's ordering pro-spec jerseys to cash in, selling them as gamers, and the next thing you know you've got 300 2005 david ortiz jerseys out there and nobody wants any of them. (big round of applause for ortiz's buddies). i think the supply of current jerseys is insane.

- aside from the supply, i think the demand is as great as it ever was if not more. game-used memorabilia is more readily available and advertised than it ever was. i think more people are interested in gamers now than 20 yrs ago. however, even though the demand is there, i think actual purchasing levels are down buyers are also being more selective. they're more selective because they're becoming more educated (thanks in part to this Forum) and they're realizing that many authenticators and auction houses aren't as trustworthy as their PR releases and marketing schlock state. previously, i think purchasing levels were based far more on uneducated buyers. you'd get a scoreboard bo jackson at auction and the thing would go for over $1800 ( http://www.americanmemorabilia.com/Auction_Item.asp?Auction_ID=19198 ). now the same jersey barely gets over $200 on ebay ( http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290054018919 ). again, in 2002, a 1990 scoreboard canseco went for over $1200 at lelands ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=205&lot=1979 ). now the same jersey at the same auction house is looking to sell for far less( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=611&lot=672 ). (i don't believe canseco's steroid admissions have much to do that particular jersey as gamers that sold directly from canseco, showing amazing wear, typically sold for $700+ AFTER his steroid admissions.) buyers have obviously become of the scoreboard jerseys. (too bad leland's hasn't).
here's a 2002 arod "gamer" (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290054814819 ) that's ending in a few hours and is currently at less than $510, offered by Elite Sports Marketing: "..only the best!". is an arod gamer really worth only $510? how much would it be with a meigray tag and paperwork? i'd have to think at least $1100. so why is it going for so little? apparently other buyers feel the same way about ESM that i do and they're being more discerning and letting their wallets speak.
the demand is at the levels it always was but buyers aren't so willing to toss their money away as they once were.

anyway, to answer your original questions henry:

it's depressed because the market is flooded and buyers aren't as uneducated as they once were. i don't see how it will rebound. the supply is just going to keep increasing. buyers are just going to keep getting smarter. in 3 more years, there will be another 600 ortiz jerseys on the market and even fewer buyers willing to fall for them. i don't see how any of it is going to improve. the older stuff is strong because, as i said, the supply is very limited. plus most of it shows far better use than today's mint, crisp "gamers". the stuff today seems like it's being pumped off an assembly line 24/7.

rudy.

MVP
11-30-2006, 04:53 PM
Thanks for all the great responses. I had a feeling there would be some well thought out observations on the state of the hobby.

-Henry

allstarsplus
11-30-2006, 06:18 PM
it's depressed because the market is flooded and buyers aren't as uneducated as they once were. i don't see how it will rebound. the supply is just going to keep increasing. buyers are just going to keep getting smarter. in 3 more years, there will be another 600 ortiz jerseys on the market and even fewer buyers willing to fall for them. i don't see how any of it is going to improve. the older stuff is strong because, as i said, the supply is very limited. plus most of it shows far better use than today's mint, crisp "gamers". the stuff today seems like it's being pumped off an assembly line 24/7.

rudy. Rudy - I would partially agree that segments of the market is flooded, but there are plenty of players in high demand still as I mentioned in my earlier Post about the Pujols, Ripken, Jeter, Ryan Howard to name a few are always mentioned here and their demand is high with a low supply of "real" items. Real items being the operative word. You are right that education is a problem and potentially it may be the biggest problem in the industry because for every fake purchased it potentially leaves one real one in the supply chain. I think the problem goes further as demand is lessened by the trepidation of buyers that won't jump in because lack of confidence due to all the fakes.

Blanket statements about the modern market can't be true when the Bonds 715 HR ball sells for $220,100. The market is selective and unique and one-of-a-kind items fare much better in my opinion.

kingjammy24
12-01-2006, 05:07 PM
hi andrew,

when i said that i believe the market is flooded, i meant flooded with both legit items and garbage. i believe there are more legit items and more garbage than there was 15 yrs ago. you indicate that demand is still high for certain superstars and supply of their legit items is low. while i have little doubt that demand for superstars has always and will always be high, i'd offer that terms like "low supply" are relative. i'd say that there are more legit items from a typical superstar available on the market today than there were 15 yrs ago. after the end of the 2005 season, for example, i'd say there were more legit pujols jerseys available than there were legit ripkens after the 1988 season. supply is higher today in every aspect. demand will always be there for the superstars but if supply has increased, then prices must also decrease and that's what we're talking about; a decrease in adjusted prices.

i don't believe my "blanket statement can't be true" simply because of a single sale of a highly-niche, extremely low-supply item like the bonds ball. an aberration doesn't negate a generalization. (it's safe to say smoking causes lung cancer despite the fact that there've been smokers who did not develop lung cancer.) the bonds ball is an anomaly because of the nature of the item. previously i was referring exclusively to jerseys and noted how the insane supply of modern jerseys is depressing prices. although the bonds ball is a "modern item", the similarities stop there and for the purposes of discussing prices, the ball and modern jerseys couldn't be more dissimilar. there is no huge supply of historic HR balls. how many historic balls are on the market? how many historic balls come on the market each season? every season, crates of superstar jerseys come on the market. you can't just produce a 715 HR ball each season. you realize that there are only 2 715 balls ever hit in the history of the major leagues? pointing to an insanely scarce item like a 715 HR ball and saying "see..modern items still fetch high prices" isn't really fair is it?

if anyone really wanted to prove that adjusted prices are heading downwards for modern items of superstar players, then you've got to compare similar items.

here's a start:

2003 Arod jersey auctioned off by Lelands in Dec 2005 - $1720 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=512&lot=645 )

this exact same jersey previously sold at a Dec 2004 Lelands auction for $2345 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=412&lot=1106 )

"..unique and one-of-a-kind items fare much better in my opinion."

i completely agree. however, you can't use one-of-a-kind items as a general barometer for modern prices because the items are, in fact, one-of-a-kind.

"..demand is lessened by the trepidation of buyers that won't jump in because lack of confidence due to all the fakes."

i completely and wholeheartedly agree.

rudy.

allstarsplus
12-01-2006, 05:20 PM
here's a start:

2003 Arod jersey auctioned off by Lelands in Dec 2005 - $1720 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=512&lot=645 )

this exact same jersey previously sold at a Dec 2004 Lelands auction for $2345 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=412&lot=1106 )

"..unique and one-of-a-kind items fare much better in my opinion."

i completely agree. however, you can't use one-of-a-kind items as a general barometer for modern prices because the items are, in fact, one-of-a-kind.

"..demand is lessened by the trepidation of buyers that won't jump in because lack of confidence due to all the fakes."

i completely and wholeheartedly agree.

rudy.Rudy - Thanks for the clarification and I believe we are on the same page.

My only thought with the modern player and their pricing is that their prices will see fluctuations as they change teams, current performance, current statistics, scandal, and public perception as they relate to supply and demand and market fluctuation.

Scandal hits Rafael Palmeiro is an example that ESM won't soon forget, but you also have ARod goes from the Rangers to the Yankees is one example of how a team change may affect the value of his Rangers items, and public perception of Barry Bonds may affect the value of his items.

There is a myriad of factors that affect the demand side.

Andrew