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View Full Version : Resale Values of Certified GU Items Have Officially Collapsed



commando
04-16-2013, 05:08 PM
Just an observation. It seems to me that the high point-of-sale prices paid to teams and their resellers for game-used items cannot be recouped on the secondary market. To make matters worse, many teams now think their GU merchandise is much more valuable than it really is, which makes it more difficult for resellers to do bulk buys at a reasonable price.

There are several reasons for this. One is market saturation. The Mets, Cowboys, Royals, Vikings and even the Yankees have made available literally tons of GU items over the past few years, meaning if the item is not from a star player, it's virtually a guarantee that the early buyer is paying too much. Unpurchased equipment continues to have lower and lower asking prices on Ebay, and can be solid acquisitions for those who are patient enough to wait (and are not afraid of losing the item).

I think speculation also plays a huge role. Similar to the card market, where you paid $5 for a rookie card a couple of years ago and it now books for $1.50. More often than not, players either fade from the spotlight or perhaps become a solid player at best. The Colin Kaepernick stories are rare. I think we all understand this, but it is nonetheless a huge reason why buying a newer jersey carries extra risk. I have seen a couple of beautiful Bernard Berrian Vikings jerseys sell on Ebay in the $150 range, complete with the Anniversary patch and J.O. paperwork. A couple of years ago, someone paid upwards of $600 or more for these same jerseys.

The slow economy has impacted all areas of collectables, including game used. A collector might impulse-buy a bat for $20, but probably not a jersey for $250 (unless it is a steal). An argument can be made that there are more sellers than buyers at the moment -- and we know how that impacts the whole supply versus demand thing. The people with money can pick and choose the items they want, while paying much less than they would have a few years ago when more buyers were on the scene.

Nothing too earth-shattering here, but just an obvious, general observation. Any comments?

hairyangryfella
04-16-2013, 05:38 PM
I also wonder where some of the bidders/buyers go...

I paid over $950 plus shipping plus import fees for a jersey from NBA Auctions. I cannot even sell it for $700 shipped now.

I'm new to the game, but I'm learning that unless you buy a star or someone who becomes hot, you're unlikely to do anything but lose if or when you try to sell.

ctguy212003
04-16-2013, 05:51 PM
Stars or up coming stars is the only way to go. Geting caught buying "cheaper" middle class players will leave you broke. There must be a demand.

Samets
04-16-2013, 08:45 PM
I hope the economy impacts the GUU Chicago Bears market even harder... I have some money that I want to spend and farther I can stretch it, better for me!

COWBOYS4EVR
04-16-2013, 09:07 PM
Great point you have brought up. I've been thinking this reminds me of
when the trading card business got big in the early 90's. I read an article on
how card company's just pushed out more and more which dropped prices on value. Example Emmitt Smith's rookie card Score 101T. One of the best running backs of all time, book value in 92 was over 400. Today less than 100 bucks and going lower, reason......over saturation of the market.

I only collect football, but my concern is not just only GU items but also issued.
NFL Auctions is playing a big part in this, even though it for a good cause.
Every week there's jerseys of the same player every auction every other week.
Even on eBay there's more than one posted, and just like the card game this will
happen to the jersey market. I believe that for the low dollar on some, collectors are just going with the issued and that's enough for them. Unless its a major milestone jersey with some sort of patch attached or huge hit marks, your gonna maybe break even or lose.

commando
04-16-2013, 09:31 PM
You guys are making great points... many thanks for the comments.

Samets, how are Bears prices today versus three or five years ago? Maybe that's not a fair question, because once again, five years ago some of the players would have been highly-regarded prospects.

I know people will say "If you're a collector, value shouldn't matter." And that's true... I have overpaid more than a few times to obtain rare Houston Gamblers items. But the point here is, that across the board most prices are really soft except for the premier items. All the bulk sellers continue to heavily discount their asking prices as their inventory is not moving.

beaglegypsy003
04-16-2013, 10:36 PM
This is a reason I collect/buy what I enjoy. Even when the price I pay is low, I would say my collection except for one or two pieces would be considered commons. As such I would never see a profit if I chose to resell anything. Still I really enjoy my collection for what it is.

solarlottry
04-17-2013, 12:58 AM
I do not buy what I am interest in for the purpose of resale so I am not concerned about what prices I might get if I decided to sell something. To me the supply of 49er game worn items is the exact opposite of what "commando" accurately accesses is the supply of many other game worn items.

NFL Auctions has obviously increased the number of 2009-2012 game worn jerseys as they routinely sell at least 4-6 different players jerseys every season. Usually 2 or at most 3 jerseys of such stars as Willis, Gore or Justin Smith are sold as well as 1 or at most 2 of other players. Theoretically the fact that so many Willis shirts have been sold since 09 (between 6-10) should make them readily available and somewhat cheaper than what initially sold for. The problem is that one rarely sees any of the 49er gamers sold by NFL Auctions for resale.

Additionally the supply of vintage 49er jerseys is almost non existent so when one pops up for sale they sell quickly and for high prices. I cannot remember the last time a quality 49er vintage (1979-1989) was for sale on eBay.

The supply of 49er gamers from the early 90s through 1995 is also quite low and usually fetch prices that are high. The last shirt I won on eBay was a 1994 Gary Plummer away throwback without a team letter that I paid over 1700$ for. Plummer is no superstar so even solid non superstars can fetch good money.

The prices that most of the game worn items we all collect is related to what you collect and who wants to buy or sell. When supply is low for a variety of reasons prices are high but in the case of items mentioned earlier like Cowboys or Yankees shirts, prices tend to fall as way to much of it is released. I wish that I had the problem of too many 49er shirts around with team documentation that were cheap!

Always buying 49er game worn items and paying a finders fee.
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

Samets
04-17-2013, 06:07 AM
...Samets, how are Bears prices today versus three or five years ago? Maybe that's not a fair question, because once again, five years ago some of the players would have been highly-regarded prospects.

The prices are high and they have always been that way. I personally think that there are some teams that no matter what they do there will always be more collectors chasing and paying high prices for GU items.

I personally started to move away from the current players and higher prices to the forgotten heroes of the days long gone. There seems to be a bit less competition and the prices tend to be more attractive. Jerseys have more "wear and tear" and just sing to me!

I have been patiently watching the prices realized for some current Bears and am amazed at what some people are willing to pay. For example, Devin Hester, he has been a huge failure on the offense since he was yanked from Special Teams, yet people are dropping serious coin for his jersey! Do people think that in 5/10 years anyone will care about the jersey he did absolutely nothing in (literally)? Cutler is another example, he's a good quarterback but not HOF material and once he's gone, he'll be in the same bucket as Grossman. We came close but no cigar.

I'm also tracking Urlacher prices. He's gone from Chicago and as sad as I am to see him go, I want to see where his jersey prices will go. He's not in HOF yet and there were a ton of them released... Do I want one? Hell Yes! Will I pay the inflated $5,000 - $8,000 prices? Hell NO!

The perfect example I have is the alternate Nick Roach that was on eBay for a little while... Nick was a current player at the start of the listing and it started out at $750 (I was thinking $500 jersey at the time) and slowly the price kept dropping in $50 increments until he left Chicago. The seller re-listed it auction style with reserve and it was not met since the bidding stalled at around the $300 mark...

Rant off.

Samets out.

slab0meat
04-17-2013, 08:20 AM
This is a reason I collect/buy what I enjoy. Even when the price I pay is low, I would say my collection except for one or two pieces would be considered commons. As such I would never see a profit if I chose to resell anything. Still I really enjoy my collection for what it is.

Pretty much my situation as well. Other than Yankees jerseys (talking baseball only here), I collect styles of jerseys I like and am happy if it's a cheap common player. I have no plans to resell anything, though you never know what might happen. I certainly would NOT be making any profit if I sold off what I have. I collect what I like and want to keep, hopefully long enough to pass them along to the kids.

buckeyegamers
04-18-2013, 07:36 AM
The question everyone needs to ask themselves is "Am I a collector or an investor?" Personally I am a collector and I love the fact that currently I am able to "get more for less". If you are an investor on the other hand..... I can see why you would be concerned.

ousooner_85
04-18-2013, 08:25 AM
The question everyone needs to ask themselves is "Am I a collector or an investor?" Personally I am a collector and I love the fact that currently I am able to "get more for less". If you are an investor on the other hand..... I can see why you would be concerned.

Well said my friend. As a collector, I'm more than happy to purchase jerseys at a discounted rate.

coxfan
04-18-2013, 08:59 AM
Even those of us (like me) who are solely collectors must think like investors where our future heirs are concerned. As discussed in other threads, we need to be sure our heirs know how to get best resale value for our collection after we're gone. That includes keeping some notes about the special or historical significance of any item, as these details are often forgotten when items change ownership.

Preston
04-18-2013, 09:22 AM
I'm a collector (thank God because if I were to be an investor I'd be dumb to be doing it w/ Titans gear vs. being a high-roller and bidding on that awesome Nitchske gamer on auction right now or deceased hall of famers game used stuff) and have noticed a lot of stuff has hit a decline on pricing, but there's a few teams that seem to have held value because their stuff is so difficult to get (Steelers, Bears, Broncos - via Panini but they aren't cheap, Packers, Patriots). Thankfully my Titans stuff isn't too expensive across the board (Eddie and Steve are of course) but for the most part I've paid pretty fairly for most everything I've acquired.

sportsnbikes
04-18-2013, 12:08 PM
I think everything is oversaturated for the most part...especially cards and autographs.

At Royals Fanfest they were practically giving away jerseys and bats. There aren't a ton of stars that play for them but if you wanted some game used items cheap that's where you wanted to be.

How do you all feel about a Jeter gamer? It's a bat that is still high in price but there are so many out there. It's still high in price because of the large demand. I would think that when he retires, the prices would go up some. The problem I have with a Jeter gamer is that it seems as though he uses the bat for a very short time then turns it over to Steiner to sell. Most of the ones I have seen have very little use to them. The sellers who have the heavily used Jeter gamer want an arm and a leg.

hairyangryfella
04-18-2013, 03:34 PM
The question everyone needs to ask themselves is "Am I a collector or an investor?" Personally I am a collector and I love the fact that currently I am able to "get more for less". If you are an investor on the other hand..... I can see why you would be concerned.

I don't see how you could be an 'investor' in this industry... they are already very expensive and not that many people are fully aware of them.

That said, I'm trying to sell a couple of pieces that I don't neeeeed to try to pay for some bills, and I'm struggling to get anything anywhere near what I want. The best offer I had was about $650, and he's not even interested anymore, yet it cost me almost $1k!

beaglegypsy003
04-18-2013, 09:01 PM
As of now, my intent is to leave my collection to the University of Hawaii if they would have it. There are prominent UH players as far as their college careers go. If only they could have some kind of display area to exhibit the jerseys. Maybe only wishful thinking.

ctguy212003
04-18-2013, 09:10 PM
I don't see how you could be an 'investor' in this industry... they are already very expensive and not that many people are fully aware of them.

That said, I'm trying to sell a couple of pieces that I don't neeeeed to try to pay for some bills, and I'm struggling to get anything anywhere near what I want. The best offer I had was about $650, and he's not even interested anymore, yet it cost me almost $1k!

Email me and let me know what you got. I may be interested

Ctguy212003@yahoo.com

paul457
04-18-2013, 09:27 PM
IMHO, buying the new and hot items of the day, whatever they may be, will rarely result in more dollars down the road. You have to collect what you like, vs. being concerned about future value. GU stuff is getting a lot of attention lately, so this stuff is only going to become more plentiful.

Interest (in everything) just fades over the years - look at Joe Montana goods 20 years ago vs today, and compare against values 10 years from now. Sure there are some exeptional items of his that may command more than they did 20 years ago, but that's the exception, not the rule. Now it's Tom Brady - that GU Brady jersey that sold for $40k a couple of years ago? Good luck selling that jersey and getting 1/4 of that in 20 years.

I buy stuff I enjoy, with the assumption that I'm going to take a bath if I ever sell any of it.

spartanservitto
04-18-2013, 09:40 PM
Albert Pujols gamers are the prime example .... 4-6k at one point , now you can get one from 1500-2000, and that's signed and inscribed.

-Tony

solarlottry
04-19-2013, 02:51 AM
IMHO, buying the new and hot items of the day, whatever they may be, will rarely result in more dollars down the road. You have to collect what you like, vs. being concerned about future value. GU stuff is getting a lot of attention lately, so this stuff is only going to become more plentiful.

Interest (in everything) just fades over the years - look at Joe Montana goods 20 years ago vs today, and compare against values 10 years from now. Sure there are some exeptional items of his that may command more than they did 20 years ago, but that's the exception, not the rule. Now it's Tom Brady - that GU Brady jersey that sold for $40k a couple of years ago? Good luck selling that jersey and getting 1/4 of that in 20 years.

I buy stuff I enjoy, with the assumption that I'm going to take a bath if I ever sell any of it.

Paul457-I have to disagree on your assessment of Montana prices. What are basing your assessment on? The last authentic Montana shirt to sell with legitimate documentation was his KC Chiefs shirt worn vs Steve Young in 1994. It sold for over 15K without the buyers premium.

Prior to that sale I cannot remember that last time a legit Montana 49er or KC game worn jersey was sold publicly. Sure many have sold via the various auctions houses but I have not been comfortable with purchasing a single one.

I am sure that there has been a handful of private sales of perfectly legit Montana shirts with team letters but when was the last time you saw on for sale anywhere?

I currently own 4 Joe Montana 49er game worn jerseys, all with team letters and photo matches. I paid around 15K for each of them except for one which was considerably cheaper. The cheaper jersey was the exception not the rule though.

I have been collecting 49er game worn jerseys since the early 90s and think that Montana items are harder to find now than 20 years ago. In 1988-1993 the team sold Montana shirts on a regular basis and now 99% are locked up in collections and rarely change hands. Prices were much lower in the early 90s but rose to almost 20K per jersey some years after that. Prices may have come down some over the last few years but not all that much.

Montana shirts will always command a premium as there are so few of his early jerseys available (1979-1984), a handful of his mid 80s shirts around and maybe 30 of his 1988-1990 gamers out there.

Compared to Brady it is a no-brainer as to which jersey is more valuable-MONTANA. He won 4 SBs and had an 18-1 season in 1984 and won the game that counted by demolishing a Dolphins team led by Marino. The 49ers lost one game vs the Steelers by three points, on a bad call and a missed field goal otherwise would have had a perfect season.

Brady is obviously a HOF player and his jerseys will always command a premium. Both players shirts should maintain their value although as the Patriots release more and more Brady gamers, prices may go down.

Always buying 49er game worn items and paying a finders fee.
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

commando
04-19-2013, 03:06 AM
Paul457-I have to disagree on your assessment of Montana prices. What are basing your assessment on? The last authentic Montana shirt to sell with legitimate documentation was his KC Chiefs shirt worn vs Steve Young in 1994. It sold for over 15K without the buyers premium.


I'll tell ya though, what really surprised me about the last Goldin Auction was how little the one-of-a-kind Montana items sold for -- and they came directly from Joe himself. His flak jackets selling for only $619 and $550? His knee brace for only $552? Maybe most collectors don't care about the oddball stuff, and maybe these things don't display well... Personally, I think these items are unique and the flak jackets in particular were way undervalued.

solarlottry
04-20-2013, 02:37 AM
I'll tell ya though, what really surprised me about the last Goldin Auction was how little the one-of-a-kind Montana items sold for -- and they came directly from Joe himself. His flak jackets selling for only $619 and $550? His knee brace for only $552? Maybe most collectors don't care about the oddball stuff, and maybe these things don't display well... Personally, I think these items are unique and the flak jackets in particular were way undervalued.

I thought that the prices for the Montana items were quite good. I won the KC Montana practice shirt which was over 1300$, which I consider a great price for a practice shirt (a Chiefs one at that!). The flak jackets and knee brace all selling for around 600$ seems about right to me as they are really eclectic items for a focused collector.

I agree that the items are unique but the old law of supply and demand rears it head once again. The items may have brought higher prices if they had been sold in separate auctions. Overall I think all the prices were good and am really looking forward to the next Goldin Auction!!!

Always buying 49er game worn items and paying a finders fee.
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

hairyangryfella
04-20-2013, 03:35 AM
I thought that the prices for the Montana items were quite good. I won the KC Montana practice shirt which was over 1300$, which I consider a great price for a practice shirt (a Chiefs one at that!). The flak jackets and knee brace all selling for around 600$ seems about right to me as they are really eclectic items for a focused collector.

I agree that the items are unique but the old law of supply and demand rears it head once again. The items may have brought higher prices if they had been sold in separate auctions. Overall I think all the prices were good and am really looking forward to the next Goldin Auction!!!

Always buying 49er game worn items and paying a finders fee.
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

I was interested in the practice jersey but was quickly priced out of it. The other items were very.... unique. Kind of weird things to have in your collection. I also didn't really like how they were all signed - the size, placement and wording detracted from the appeal to me.

Vikings_Collector
04-20-2013, 07:53 PM
The key to the hobby world is to treat it for what it is, a hobby. When you start buying collectibles as investments, 9 out of 10 times you will probably be disappointed...

gatordeve
04-20-2013, 07:56 PM
i'm ok with resale prices dropping as i am buying for my collection and not to resale

MLB~NUT
04-20-2013, 08:02 PM
i'm ok with resale prices dropping as i am buying for my collection and not to resale

Exactly...:)

42itus
04-20-2013, 10:01 PM
I hope prices keep dropping as well. :)

frikativ54
04-20-2013, 10:21 PM
I've probably said this before, but the issue is one of oversaturation. I can speak to the situation in Seattle with the Mariners. Top prospects are traded or developed here, their bats are going for $300 to $500; I'm referring to guys like Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley. The M's authenticate tons of game used jerseys, often with little use and not worn for more than a few games. Some of Montero and Ackley's jerseys are going for in the ballpark of $2,000.

However, as as is the case with many prospects, they cannot sustain their production. Ackley has tailed off significantly, as has Montero, and pretty soon, the bats are only selling for $175. The jerseys don't garner what they used to at auction. And collectors hesitate to buy what used to disappear out of the Team Store and the Game Used Kiosk. A similar situation has happened with Justin Smoak. You used to have to act quickly to get one of his bats. Not anymore.

Some of us are left with stuff that we can't even sell at face value, much less at a profit. Even if the shirts aren't worth much, we still might get pleasure from looking at jerseys with considerable use. The only problem is that these shirts are often crisp, only having been worn for a few contests. The end result is that they are lacking in both aesthetic and monetary value. Thankfully, I have a couple of Smoak jerseys with a ton of use that I can enjoy even though he's hitting at the Mendoza Line.

hairyangryfella
04-20-2013, 11:04 PM
Exactly...:)

I think you guys are missing part of the point... even if you're buying to keep, should there be a time when you need to sell to pay off something, you're almost certain to not even get close to what you paid for your item(s).

commando
04-20-2013, 11:17 PM
I think you guys are missing part of the point... even if you're buying to keep, should there be a time when you need to sell to pay off something, you're almost certain to not even get close to what you paid for your item(s).

You're absolutely right.... That really is the point. Even if you don't plan to resell something, you still could have used the overpaid money for something else that benefits you and your family.

Like I said earlier, most of us have overpaid for "select" items we really wanted (whatever that means to each of us). That's not the problem, and this hobby has always been that way.... The problem is the across-the-board inflated prices of EVERY new authenticated item that hits the market. Several companies that sell this stuff have already bitten the dust, and more will follow. Collectors cannot and will not pay these inflated prices for common, overproduced items that have little or no wear.

42itus
04-21-2013, 01:48 AM
Generally, if you buy anything that has value and you decide to sell it at a later date, you will take a hit on it. Except for maybe gold and silver...

frikativ54
04-21-2013, 09:55 AM
I think you guys are missing part of the point... even if you're buying to keep, should there be a time when you need to sell to pay off something, you're almost certain to not even get close to what you paid for your item(s).

This is precisely how I feel. After picking up an awesome item, we say, "Hey, I'm never going to sell this piece, so who cares if I overpay!" While that may be true with a few items in our collection, at some point, we may find something better and want to move our previously untouchable items. I know that this has happened with me.

To begin with, I didn't care how much I spend on my Jeff Bagwell card collection, because I was sure I would never sell. However, as I discovered game-used and needed the money to purchase my grails, the baseball cards became expendable. And I'm lucky that I was even able to break even on my three most valuable cards.

I agree that game used is becoming how baseball cards used to be.

frikativ54
04-21-2013, 09:56 AM
To begin with, I didn't care how much I spend on my Jeff Bagwell card collection, because I was sure I would never sell. However, as I discovered game-used and needed the money to purchase my grails, the baseball cards became expendable. And I'm lucky that I was even able to break even on my three most valuable cards.

Should be "spent." Sorry.

CampWest
04-21-2013, 10:20 AM
Generally, if you buy anything that has value and you decide to sell it at a later date, you will take a hit on it. Except for maybe gold and silver...

Gold is down 28% over the last two years... All depends on when you buy and when you sell. There is very little you can guarantee a return on in this world. If there was something you could guarantee a return on, an efficient market would price out that return to a fairly low yield. The closest thing to a guaranteed return of the cost of investment is a short term US Treasury Bill, and because of its safety, the yield is essentially near zero.

Collectible items carry significant risk. Most of it is a poor investment (high risk, low reward). If you are in a collector hobby to make money, you better be very selective.

hairyangryfella
04-22-2013, 01:15 AM
Generally, if you buy anything that has value and you decide to sell it at a later date, you will take a hit on it. Except for maybe gold and silver...

Indeed. But the thing is here that we're taking massive hits. I paid $952 plus shipping plus import fees for Richard Hamilton's Bulls Debut jersey with Christmas Day patch. I just sold it for $680 shipped (so about $618 after fees and postage). That's a massive loss, over what wasn't that long a period. But, I needed to sell it and I'm glad I did.

42itus
04-22-2013, 02:33 AM
That's a big hit. I'm not much of a speculator, but if you want to buy items that won't lose value would it be safe to say to stay away from current players? Unless the player is a sure fire HOFer, you can probably assume that the value will do down after their playing days are over.

30% hit is pretty substantial, but one way to look at it is that although value was lost, the owner did get to enjoy it for a little while. I think it's very similar to artwork in that your display piece envokes an emotion. So the "hit" that you take is not a total loss if you were able to enjoy your piece.

hairyangryfella
04-22-2013, 05:14 AM
That's a big hit. I'm not much of a speculator, but if you want to buy items that won't lose value would it be safe to say to stay away from current players? Unless the player is a sure fire HOFer, you can probably assume that the value will do down after their playing days are over.

30% hit is pretty substantial, but one way to look at it is that although value was lost, the owner did get to enjoy it for a little while. I think it's very similar to artwork in that your display piece envokes an emotion. So the "hit" that you take is not a total loss if you were able to enjoy your piece.

Sadly I have neither the room, security or money to have my jerseys displayed or framed, so the amount of enjoyment is limited... and this is something I've realized, hence why I've been selling some of my unneeded pieces. It was a beautiful jersey, a stunning red Bulls jersey that I will miss. But, needs must. Just a shame to get back that "little" an amount. Definitely a learning process.

xpress34
04-22-2013, 09:03 AM
Just an observation here:

While some items have lost value due to 'over production' (for lack of a better term) and some have lost value because that 'can't miss' player in fact did miss, some items have dropped because of the player's off field issues (drugs, attitude towards fans, etc.)...

Case in point - A-Rod.

I was in Seattle last week and went to a few Sports Card/Memorabilia shops. One had a GU A-Rod Batting Glove from Upper Deck Authenticated. These use to move in the price range of anywhere from $300 to upwards of $500 per glove (not pair) - especially being UDA.

If I had wanted the glove, it could have been mine for $75.00.

My how the 'mighty' have fallen...