Tom Brady game used question.

[jon_8_us]

I have decided to go after either a Tom Brady game used jersey or helmet.What is the ballpark prices on these items?Also who has one and where can i get it?I'm gonna have to sell a few nice bats but it's worth it.Thanks for any help.
jon

[beantown]

I have seen prices from around $5,000.00 to $10,000.00...

[sportscentury]

Jon,

I don't think this is the smartest time to buy Brady stuff. It's the beginning of the NFL season and his market is still too hot (three rings in four years will keep a QB hot for a while). I would be patient and pick up some better items later on after his market is no longer on fire. It may take a while (and perhaps you just don't want to wait that long, which is fine), but you may save yourself a bundle.

Best,
Reid

[jon_8_us]

Reid your point is well taken.I have just longed for a nice Brady jersey or helmet.I have collected Brady certified autographs and cards for a while and have graduated to game used so it only seemed natural to go after one.I guess if i can wait a few more years(what if they win 3 more super bowls??)for the price to go down.I would have to sell a nice part of my collection to afford 5K$ to 10K$.Thanks
jon

[sportscentury]

My advice would be to continue asking around, but don't be married to the idea of buying now. You may find something that is reasonable and, if so, then you can go for it. But sometimes collectors get so hyped up that they end up spending way more than that want to... and then the buzz wears off and they are left with an expensive item and regrets.

Good luck,
Reid

[Eric]

Please also keep in mind that the Patriots are very tight when it comes to keeping their equipment. If you're going to buy a Tom Brady item, trust your source.
Eric

[sportscentury]

Please also keep in mind that the Patriots are very tight when it comes to keeping their equipment. If you're going to buy a Tom Brady item, trust your source.
Eric

This likely adds to why Brady items go for such high prices.

Reid

[kingjammy24]

trying to strategize a best time to buy is an interesting topic.
i've found that prices are typically highest at two different points in an athlete's career; 1) if they're a hyped rookie, then during their rookie year. many sellers fuel the hype to make money and hope that speculative buyers will get caught up in it. the buyers are the ones driving up prices on unproven talent based on their hopes that the player will turn out to be the next clemens or pujols and their rookie purchase will eventually turn out to be some piece worthy of cooperstown. 2) if they start having an stellar career and acheiving some notable accomplishments like brady, then during the pinnacle of their career.

as reid mentioned, from a financial perspective, buying a brady jersey at this specific point in time would likely have you buying at the top of the market. reid suggested that you wait until brady cools down and his prices consequently cool down. financially, i think this is sound, fundamental advice. afterall, why would anyone want to buy high?

let me offer an alternative opinion as to why someone would want to buy high. reid's advice centered around prices. my alternative advice centers around supply. there is no better supply of a player's jerseys than while he is playing. for jerseys from specific year, there is no better supply than during and shortly after that season. the jerseys are released to sellers/dealers who look to turn their inventory over quickly. now is the time that brady gamers are entering the market every single season. this supply will completely stop one day. if you wait till then, then by the time you venture into the market you'll find that most of the jerseys have long settled into the hands of collectors. unlike dealers, collectors have little reason to sell jerseys. collectors don't buy to sell, they buy to collect (ie: hang on to for years). once jerseys settle into the hands of collectors, you'll find you may be waiting for years until one of them decides to let their prized brady go.

as a collector, this is the position i find myself with my niche. i focus on 1989-1994 jays jerseys. the jays started selling their entire stock in 2000/2001. i failed to get in when the gates opened/when the jerseys originally became available. i'm now forced to play a waiting game, basically sitting around thinking "maybe today will be the day that someone finally releases that 1991 olerud or 1992 ward jersey". unfortunately, they could hold on to the thing for the next 20 yrs. i may never see my 1991 olerud. had i gotten in when the jersey was originally released, i may have paid a premium but at least i would've gotten it. now i'm just sitting and waiting. i've been waiting for years. it seems these things barely trickle out. i'm not letting go of any of my jays jerseys and it appears other collectors aren't either, so we're all just sitting here waiting and waiting. and waiting.

i guess it depends on whether you've got more time or more money. if you've got more of the former, then waiting is good advice. if you've got more of the latter, then i'd caution you that if you wait till the bradys get sold off to collectors, you may be waiting years to see them again and you possibly may never see them again.

rudy.

[sportscentury]

Rudy,

Fair enough. Let's consider Favre, though. During his Super Bowl years (and the years immediately thereafter), his items were selling for sky high prices. During the last few years, though, his items have been easier to find (as he has played longer and has used more jerseys, helmets, etc., and demand is lower because his performance level is not what it used to be). To me this seems like a good time to buy Favre. Prices are down (because his performance is down and many Favre pieces have already entered the market) and supply is reasonable (I'm not going to say supply is good because I don't ever remember a time when there was a lot of real Favre stuff on the market - again, though, I don't follow football items very closely).

So, my point is that perhaps Jon should wait until later in Brady's career - he'll still be playing (which meets your point about supply being best when a player is still active) but prices should be down (because there will be more items that have made it to the secondary market and, presumably, his performance level will not be as high).

Best,
Reid

[kingjammy24]

reid,

yes, there's always that middleground where you can balance supply and price by waiting until an athlete's final, declining years. as you mention, the supply should be as good as it ever was and prices should be offset not only by the increased supply over the years and the athlete's decline, but also by virtue of the fact that noone's chasing him as the hot star anymore. favre is a good example as are many such as rickey henderson (yankees/a's jerseys vs mariners/dodgers jerseys), montana (49'ers jerseys vs chiefs jerseys), gretzky (oilers/kings vs blues/rangers) etc. (even if an athlete doesn't really decline much, such as clemens, i still think the latter year jerseys typically go for less. compare the value of a 1989 clemens gamer vs a 2005 gamer.) i just wanted jon to be aware that it's not simply a matter of waiting until prices come down (which they will); in order to make that decision, he ought to know that if he waits, the "glory days" jerseys specifically will become much more difficult to find.

the only issue left is whether it's a question of obtaining a jersey from any point in the athlete's career versus obtaining one from their prime/glory days. i'm unsure if jon wants a jersey from when brady was a hotshot or one from his declining years. if jon is set on a pats superbowl-era brady jersey, then i think my advice stands; the longer he waits, the tougher they'll be just to find. if jon just wants a pats brady jersey in general, then i believe you're correct and he'd benefit most from waiting, watching and buying in a few years when he's cooled down. a 2000 ripken gamer isn't cheap, for example, but it's a lot cheaper than a 1983, and at the end of the day it's still a ripken. while we'd all prefer a jersey to be from an athlete's glory days, many of us would be content with any of their jerseys.

rudy.

[sportscentury]

Hi, Rudy.

It probably depends on the player, but I've found that some of the better stuff (e.g., jerseys from the years of the player's prime) tends to resurface when the player is older and not playing as well (and perhaps not playing as much), so the issue of what year shirt/helmet is desired may not be that pressing. For example, a lot of incredible A's and Yankees items of Rickey Henderson surfaced when he was playing his final years with the Padres and Red Sox.

I would bet, though, that this is less likely to occur with players who go out on top. Jordan is a good example of this. When he retired the first two times (both times coming off of a Championship year), there were no prime pieces to be had (nor were there during the days/months leading up to the retirements). However, a lot of this stuff appeared when he was with the Wizards - the attraction had died down some and some Jordan collectors saw his retirement from the Wizards as the last time to get top prices for their early Jordan items (though I would be that many of their expectations were not met as there was a ton of Jordan stuff by that point and the Jordan hype was way down... as were the prices).

I should note that the Favre, Rickey, and Jordan examples are solely based on how I remember things, not a systematic comparison across years by player.

Reid