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legaleagle92481
10-17-2010, 11:05 AM
The other day I posted a thread on a Tim Tebow jersey that got deleted looking back on it the thread did not come off as I intended so I will try again. As many of you have seen JO is selling a Tim Tebow Broncos jersey from the Jaguars game for $10,000. For reference purposes Tebow DID NOT play a single snap in that game and therefore in his career log of games that game is not listed. My question though is what is the value of potential and rookie items when it comes to GU items? And how much of a premium are you willing to pay for that, when it comes to GU items? Does the fact the player did not play in the game affect your decision to invest or not invest in a GU item of a rookie? This thread is not intended to criticize JO in anyway I just found the item and price intriguing. This situation is much different than the Sanchez because at the time he was his team's starting qb and showing potential and Tebow is behind a guy who has been one of the top QBs in the NFL this year and has not started a game. So he is pure potential at this point.

Fnazxc0114
10-17-2010, 02:52 PM
If a player plays 10-20 years they will never make another rookie jersey. In todays flooded markets it is truly one of the areas they wont be able to make any more of. So yes i would say there would be a premium of these items.

zookerman182
10-17-2010, 03:56 PM
Td Tebow

Chris78
10-17-2010, 04:21 PM
If a player plays 10-20 years they will never make another rookie jersey. In todays flooded markets it is truly one of the areas they wont be able to make any more of. So yes i would say there would be a premium of these items.
The chances of Tem Tebow being as good as Joe Montana, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc. is very unlikely. I personally would never pay that much for a jersey, as I can't afford it, but even if I could I would rather put the money into proven guys like the 3 mentioned above. Look at the people that paid for Strasburg, he may never be as good as expected with the injury, but only time will tell.

Chris78
10-17-2010, 04:31 PM
The chances of Tem Tebow being as good as Joe Montana, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc. is very unlikely. I personally would never pay that much for a jersey, as I can't afford it, but even if I could I would rather put the money into proven guys like the 3 mentioned above. Look at the people that paid for Strasburg, he may never be as good as expected with the injury, but only time will tell.
So in other words, you are better waiting 10-20 years to buy the Tim Tebow rookie jersey for $10,000 -- assuming it would be worth that much even if he is as good as a Montana, Elway, Marino, Unitas, Bradshaw, etc.. With the market that we have today (i.e. items are much more available and more rookie jerseys in general), this would be a very stupid purchase.

AWA85
10-17-2010, 04:37 PM
The one positive thing about purchasing a rookie gamer is the rarity and difficulty of owning an early jersey of the player. Just was talking to Jeff about how we see tons of late Barry Larkin jerseys pop up, yet you never see a rookie jersey or any of his 1980's come about ever. It can be risky spending a premium for an unkown, but you may be getting something that will be extremely difficult to find down the road.

jbsportstuff
10-17-2010, 06:33 PM
The one positive thing about purchasing a rookie gamer is the rarity and difficulty of owning an early jersey of the player. Just was talking to Jeff about how we see tons of late Barry Larkin jerseys pop up, yet you never see a rookie jersey or any of his 1980's come about ever. It can be risky spending a premium for an unkown, but you may be getting something that will be extremely difficult to find down the road.
Yeah but I still have to say thanks for the 1989 Larkin game used pants. :) I've not seen an early Larkin listed for a long time. The vest jerseys pop up every now and then but not the 86-93 jerseys. Does anyone here have one that they are willing to part with? :)

Jules9
10-17-2010, 08:21 PM
Personally I don't know how it can be considered "game used" if he was never on the field for a snap. My question is if the jersey gets sold, does JO tell the buyer that he was never out there for a play and just backed up the whole game.

indyred
10-17-2010, 10:13 PM
Wonder if JO will get orange alternate from todays game he scored his first TD in. That one would sell for a mint. Tebow mania is still big. I know any of his rare cards sell for crazy amounts.

kudu
10-17-2010, 11:44 PM
I wonder if being good looking has any factor in these jerseys going for so much. Tebow, Sanchez, and Brady are all GQ quality guys, which I would think expands the market to women and you know women love to shop:D

legaleagle92481
10-19-2010, 10:41 AM
Does Tebow remind anyone else of Phillip Rivers? Both were high draft picks that an AFC West team traded to obtain. Both ended up starting their career behind a former Purdue QB who was not a former first round pick and was not viewed as a star, then suddendly the former Purdue QB started playing like a star keeping the first rounder on the bench. Rivers sat for about two years and as a result it will greatly impact his final career stats and the way Orton's playing it looks like Tebow may do the same. Conversely Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are all starting and except for Bradford were all picked much lower than Tebow. So it looks like Tebow got jobbed by being picked by the Broncos.

allstarsplus
10-19-2010, 11:18 AM
The chances of Tem Tebow being as good as Joe Montana, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc. is very unlikely.

I personally would never pay that much for a jersey, as I can't afford it, but even if I could I would rather put the money into proven guys like the 3 mentioned above.

Look at the people that paid for Strasburg, he may never be as good as expected with the injury, but only time will tell.

$10,000 is a lot of money on a player that you are most likely correct about never being one of the "greats" and you can throw Manning, Favre and Marino in that list too on the list of modern greats and most would say $10,000 is a good price for a sure thing 1st pro jersey.

On the Strasburg correlation, his pitching debut was the greatest in MLB history and while his injury set him back a year, his only real jersey that I know of had sold for under $5,000 with no others out there with any photomatches or provenance.

If the Tebow was $3,000, that is still a lot of money for a guy who may be nothing more than a "wildcat" QB in the NFL.

I feel the same way about the Mark Sanchez jersey last year. In this hobby, to each their own!

nationals2k9
10-19-2010, 11:31 AM
Does Tebow remind anyone else of Phillip Rivers? Both were high draft picks that an AFC West team traded to obtain. Both ended up starting their career behind a former Purdue QB who was not a former first round pick and was not viewed as a star, then suddendly the former Purdue QB started playing like a star keeping the first rounder on the bench. Rivers sat for about two years and as a result it will greatly impact his final career stats and the way Orton's playing it looks like Tebow may do the same. Conversely Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are all starting and except for Bradford were all picked much lower than Tebow. So it looks like Tebow got jobbed by being picked by the Broncos.

Simply comparing Tebow to Rivers is a joke though you have shown you can draw some comparisons. Pound for pound, I actually think McCoy could grow into a poor man's Brees in a few years. Orton will never be Brees and he only throws as much as he does because the team stinks.

Back to the topic... if a person is in a position financially to "gamble" on a guy with high potential I say go for it! It'd be fun to be able to snatch up rookie gear from all of the guys everyone talks about. But for the majority of us, I think the safe play is to let that stuff pass and use our smarts later in the player's career to try and grab some of the early stuff.

Bravesfan
10-19-2010, 02:25 PM
The Broncos know what they are doing with Tebow. They are just grooming him and letting him learn. They didn't take him the first round to waste him.
What I don't understand is why Kyle Orton is not appreciated more.

allstarsplus
10-19-2010, 03:25 PM
The Broncos know what they are doing with Tebow. They are just grooming him and letting him learn. They didn't take him the first round to waste him.
What I don't understand is why Kyle Orton is not appreciated more.
The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell. :eek:

Chris78
10-19-2010, 04:07 PM
The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell. :eek:
It is pretty sad that Tim Couch probably was the best of this bunch....

Chris78
10-19-2010, 04:15 PM
$10,000 is a lot of money on a player that you are most likely correct about never being one of the "greats" and you can throw Manning, Favre and Marino in that list too on the list of modern greats and most would say $10,000 is a good price for a sure thing 1st pro jersey.

On the Strasburg correlation, his pitching debut was the greatest in MLB history and while his injury set him back a year, his only real jersey that I know of had sold for under $5,000 with no others out there with any photomatches or provenance.

If the Tebow was $3,000, that is still a lot of money for a guy who may be nothing more than a "wildcat" QB in the NFL.

I feel the same way about the Mark Sanchez jersey last year. In this hobby, to each their own!
I agree that Strasburg was/is very impressive (and to me much more than Tim Tebow) and I saw him in the minors and he was the best pitcher I ever saw at that level. I was referring to that baseball card that sold for something like $16,000+. I just personally would not take a chance on a jersey even if was less than $5,000. Now for $1000-1200, maybe I would consider it for a really top-notch prospect like Strasburg, but I have never paid that much for a single jersey.

gingi79
10-19-2010, 04:32 PM
If the buyer is a huge Gators fan and price is simply a cost of owning something they will love forever, then good pick up.

I personally believe this hobby will in the not too distant future, become a lot like baseball cards, commemorative plates, NASCAR die cast and the like. "Value" will plummet and with it, a lot of these insane costs will drop.

I'd also like to address a few comments that keeps coming up with very little comprehension of their distinct points:

1) The availability of these shirts for guys like Tebow and Strasburg today is obscene in comparison to the 90's, 80's, 70's etc. How many photomatched HOF jerseys have you seen for sale where there is no doubt about the jersey? MeiGray had a photomatched Montana for $17k at one point. Barry would have to chime in on more details and the exact price.

2) Guys wear 10+ jerseys a season now. How many jerseys did Marino wear in 1984? or Montana in 1980? Bradshaw in say 1974? No one knows a specific number (to the best of my knowledge at least) looking at photos week after week, maybe 2 or 3 of each style at most? Then they were recycled in some cases year after year?

3) Anyone with a big enough pocketbook can buy any jersey. Before JO and MeiGray and the like, how did we get our jerseys? If you were lucky and knew guys like Milt Byron or Larry P for Hockey or Tuff Stuff, Beckett, Murf Denny or Dick Dobbins. That's it folks. If you were in touch with them, getting stuff, real stuff was hard as hell. Now? 17 different auction houses, eBay, this site, 4 other game worn forums, hundreds of collectors and dealers with their pics online and posted email addresses. Access to NFL Auctions, NHL Auctions, teams selling online and through their websites even in their stadiums. Jesus, you could email the damn player sometimes!

The hobby has apexed and I hypothesize that costs for jerseys rivaling new cars will soon go the way of the 1987 Topps Baseball set. When anyone can have anything, what's it worth?

Fnazxc0114
10-19-2010, 05:36 PM
strasburg did what he did in his debut against the worst team in the NL. It could be 2-4 years before he gets anywhere close to where he was. Strasburg was nothing more than hype.

allstarsplus
10-19-2010, 05:58 PM
I agree that Strasburg was/is very impressive (and to me much more than Tim Tebow) and I saw him in the minors and he was the best pitcher I ever saw at that level. I was referring to that baseball card that sold for something like $16,000+. I just personally would not take a chance on a jersey even if was less than $5,000. Now for $1000-1200, maybe I would consider it for a really top-notch prospect like Strasburg, but I have never paid that much for a single jersey.

Good point. Forgot about that baseball card. That was nuts.

allstarsplus
10-19-2010, 06:05 PM
strasburg did what he did in his debut against the worst team in the NL. It could be 2-4 years before he gets anywhere close to where he was. Strasburg was nothing more than hype.

You know what they say about "opinions". The media hyped him and he exceeded the hype. He set the Strikeout record cumulatively in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th starts.

He pitched against Cincinatti and beat them, 1 run against the Phillies, 1 run against the Giants, 2 runs against the Mets and so on. Sure, it was nice to start against the Pirates, but that is who was on the schedule.

14 strikeouts in 7 innings in a Major League Debut is amazing.

Bravesfan
10-19-2010, 06:52 PM
The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell. :eek:

But then you have

Peyton Manning,
Eli Manning,
Dan Marino,
Joe Montana,
Drew Bledsoe,
Troy Aikman,
Duante Culpepper,
Donovan Mcnabb
and many more who have had productive NFL careers.

I bet the percentage of running backs taken in the first round and have gone on to be bust is much greater than the percentage of quarterbacks.

kellsox
10-19-2010, 07:10 PM
You know what they say about "opinions". The media hyped him and he exceeded the hype. He set the Strikeout record cumulatively in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th starts.

He pitched against Cincinatti and beat them, 1 run against the Phillies, 1 run against the Giants, 2 runs against the Mets and so on. Sure, it was nice to start against the Pirates, but that is who was on the schedule.

14 strikeouts in 7 innings in a Major League Debut is amazing.
And then he blew out his arm- assuring he will not pitch the way he began his career for at least 1 1/2 seasons. He lived up to the hype for a short period- now he is just another pitch er that is on the long road to recovery.

allstarsplus
10-19-2010, 07:29 PM
But then you have

Peyton Manning,
Eli Manning,
Dan Marino,
Joe Montana,
Drew Bledsoe,
Troy Aikman,
Duante Culpepper,
Donovan Mcnabb
and many more who have had productive NFL careers.

I bet the percentage of running backs taken in the first round and have gone on to be bust is much greater than the percentage of quarterbacks.

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

kellsox
10-19-2010, 07:41 PM
I would guess that pitchers have a higher "bust" rate than position players in mlb.

legaleagle92481
10-19-2010, 09:09 PM
So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

Believe it or not Curtis Martin was a third round pick but your defintely right 1st round QBs are epic failures much more than other positions. I have a few to add to your list all since 2000:

JP Losman
David Carr
Matt Leinart
Rex Grossman
Alex Smith
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Now consider these guys:

Tony Romo (Undrafted)
Brett Favre (Second Round)
Drew Brees (Second Round)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th Round)
Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Matt Schaub (3rd Round)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th Round)

Goes to show taking a QB is always a crapshoot.

legaleagle92481
10-19-2010, 09:10 PM
I would guess that pitchers have a higher "bust" rate than position players in mlb.

Much higher because they have a much higher risk of injury.

allstarsplus
10-19-2010, 09:44 PM
Believe it or not Curtis Martin was a third round pick but your defintely right 1st round QBs are epic failures much more than other positions. I have a few to add to your list all since 2000:

JP Losman
David Carr
Matt Leinart
Rex Grossman
Alex Smith
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Now consider these guys:

Tony Romo (Undrafted)
Brett Favre (Second Round)
Drew Brees (Second Round)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th Round)
Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Matt Schaub (3rd Round)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th Round)

Goes to show taking a QB is always a crapshoot.

A sad list indeed of all the busts. Jason Campbell on Sunday with the Raiders had a passer rating of 10.7 which was the lowest rating for a QB in 2010.

I think the reason for all the QB busts is the game doesn't translate well from being a QB in college to the NFL.

Bravesfan
10-19-2010, 11:08 PM
So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.
You said, and I qoute "Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential."
I don't believe that.
Now since you have amended that to "My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position." That makes for a totaly different argument.
Are you talking about QBs taken in the first 20 spots, 10 spots, 5 spots??
The context of your argument and its specifics must be less random. I cannot read your mind nor know what you mean if you're not specific.

Fnazxc0114
10-20-2010, 12:42 AM
Did he live up to the hype in his 3 losses. I prefer to place my focus on young players who have actually done something other than get drafted 1 and sign a big contract.

allstarsplus
10-20-2010, 07:07 AM
You said, and I qoute "Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential."
I don't believe that.
Now since you have amended that to "My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position." That makes for a totaly different argument.
Are you talking about QBs taken in the first 20 spots, 10 spots, 5 spots??
The context of your argument and its specifics must be less random. I cannot read your mind nor know what you mean if you're not specific.

This doesn't support either argument but was research on whether or not you Draft a QB in the 1st round:

Career Statistics
As the first part of the assessment, the career statistics of all top quarterbacks from the 1970 through 2006 drafts were compiled. On average, a first round quarterback played in 136 games, passed for 27,094 yards, threw 165 touchdown passes and 134 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 78.90.

Quarterbacks selected in later rounds averaged 132 games played, 24,310 passing yards, 153 touchdown passes, 113 interceptions, and a 80.65 passer rating.

Based on these results, there is little difference between the careers of a top quarterback selected in the first round and one selected later.

First rounders had slightly longer careers in terms of games played, and slightly higher production in passing yards and touchdown passes, because a first round pick is more likely to play early in his career than a later pick. For the same reason, first round picks have more interceptions and a slightly lower passer rating than later picks.

Less experienced quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions, and thus have lower passer ratings than guys who have had a little more time to learn from the sidelines.

Draft Analysis
Between 1970 and 2006, 577 quarterbacks have been drafted by NFL teams. Of those 577, 78, or 13.5 percent, were drafted in the first round. More quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round than any other round in the draft. Of those first round picks, 31, or 40 percent, have played in the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers.

Generally, the later a quarterback is selected in the draft, the less likely he is to reach the Pro Bowl. Second and third round selections have reached the Pro Bowl 20 percent of the time, and after that the rate drops precipitously to 10 percent or less.

A total of 77 quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have played in the Pro Bowl, of which the 31 first round picks comprise 40 percent.

Under one half of quarterbacks who have played in the Pro Bowl were first round draft picks, but the proportion of Super Bowl winners is even more in favor of first rounders.

Twenty quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have started for teams that won the Super Bowl, and of those 20, 11 were drafted in the first round. Of all quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 14 percent have started on the team that won the Super Bowl.
For quarterbacks drafted later or not at all, the rate is less than two percent.

Finally, the ultimate test of greatness is an election into the Hall of Fame. To date, nine quarterbacks who entered the league in 1970 or later have been enshrined in Canton, and three active quarterbacks (as of the 2008 season) can be considered locks for election after they retire, bringing the total to 12 current or future Hall of Fame quarterbacks who entered the league since 1970.

Of those 12, six were first round draft picks. Of the remainder, three were taken in the second or third round, and the rest were undrafted or drafted late.

Bravesfan
10-20-2010, 02:10 PM
I guess when it comes down to it it is kind of hard to define.
One persons idea of a bust may be different than anothers. Some bust are obvious but some are not.
Do we define a bust by wins and loses, playoff appearances, super bowl wins, pro bowls, yards completed, touchdowns, etc.............

sox83cubs84
10-20-2010, 03:06 PM
I guess when it comes down to it it is kind of hard to define.
One persons idea of a bust may be different than anothers. Some bust are obvious but some are not.
Do we define a bust by wins and loses, playoff appearances, super bowl wins, pro bowls, yards completed, touchdowns, etc.............

These things are all over the map...it's impossible to find one specific criterium. By most standards, ex-Bear Rex Grossman was a washout...but by one measuring stick, he is equal to Dan Marino (starting QB for a non-winning Super Bowl team). That's even, thoguh admittedly, Marino's all-around accomplishments bury Grossman's.

Dave Miedema