PDA

View Full Version : Will economy affect hobby?



cjclong
10-21-2008, 01:28 PM
Do any of you see the current economic situation starting to affect either your decision to make purchases or the price realized from sales?

3arod13
10-21-2008, 01:48 PM
Do any of you see the current economic situation starting to affect either your decision to make purchases or the price realized from sales?

If I really want it, I'm getting it. However, I find myself being a little more selective in what I get.

harpt
10-21-2008, 02:13 PM
The economy has not affected my buying in any way because I can never find any of the items I'm looking for whether I have money or not :rolleyes:

karamaxjoe
10-21-2008, 02:24 PM
The economy has not affected my buying in any way because I can never find any of the items I'm looking for whether I have money or not :rolleyes:

Scott, you hit it right on the head. Ninety five percent of the stuff I'm looking for pops up once or twice a year. No matter what my financial situation is, I will go hard after those items and worry about paying for it later.

ziggy
10-21-2008, 03:07 PM
yes

joelsabi
10-21-2008, 03:20 PM
when a albert pujol game used hat goes unsold at $250 and the seller relist it at $200 or best offer, you got to ask yourself what is going on. people are saving their money more for rougher time and regular fan who have a few items are willing to part with these items. if the economy was better i am sure the regular joe the plumber would keep one or two keepsakes instead of thinking to sell for extra cash.

personally, i think its a good time to buy but when there is nothing offered that you are looking for it doesn't really matter.

gatorcollector
10-21-2008, 03:43 PM
I was really hoping GUU was going to be the one place I wouldn't hear about Joe the plumber. Oh well.

joelsabi
10-21-2008, 04:13 PM
I was really hoping GUU was going to be the one place I wouldn't hear about Joe the plumber. Oh well.

i could have made my point without it. my bad.

Chris78
10-22-2008, 08:22 AM
I would think that many of the people in this hobby have a decent income and unless their job is insecure they will continue to buy. Although there are more items game used now than there was before, it is not like these items are plentiful either so as long as there are collectors, there will always be demand. I have also started to notice that more teams are starting to do the game used area, which means that each year you are probably gaining more collectors than losing them. I think that this hobby has more room to expand.

Chris

skyking26
10-22-2008, 03:08 PM
While there will always be the hobby, I think if you peruse the GUU auction and where the numbers are, it is way off from where it could be. Friend emailed me last night about a Catfish Hunter jersey that went for $8K a few years ago and a like example just went for $2500. I think that reflects alot. I've been trying to sell some stuff and contacted a guy who usually buys and he said "times are tuff, maybe at Christmas I'll buy something." He may answer 1 out of 10 emails.

I myself have curtailed expenditures big time. If it is a unique GU item sure I'll pop for it like usual. However, the oddball stuff and autographs I will not indulge in at this time...

RK

trsent
10-22-2008, 03:13 PM
While there will always be the hobby, I think if you peruse the GUU auction and where the numbers are, it is way off from where it could be. Friend emailed me last night about a Catfish Hunter jersey that went for $8K a few years ago and a like example just went for $2500. I think that reflects alot. I've been trying to sell some stuff and contacted a guy who usually buys and he said "times are tuff, maybe at Christmas I'll buy something." He may answer 1 out of 10 emails.

I myself have curtailed expenditures big time. If it is a unique GU item sure I'll pop for it like usual. However, the oddball stuff and autographs I will not indulge in at this time...

RK

I think a lot of items that sold for $8000 that now go for $2500 have to do with the card companies not paying top, top, top dollar for memorabilia as they were years ago.

Maybe, and just speculation here, shill bidding had something to do with it also?

kingjammy24
10-23-2008, 05:03 PM
in answer to the thread title, yes. it'll affect both supply and demand. my predictions are that supply will increase, as collectors sell items to meet more important financial obligations, and buying will pull back.

look, there's more to it than simply having a decent income or feeling your job is secure which in itself is a big if. the layoffs are only starting to mount now. even if one has a secure job, raises, bonuses, and promotions may be frozen. they're frozen at my workplace. no raise or bonus this year for 'ol rudy. there goes some discretionary income for one collector. what would i have done had i gotten my usual raise and bonus? probably gone out and bought a certain jays jersey i've had my eye on for awhile. but now that jersey won't be purchased by me, regardless of the fact that i've got a "secure job".

inflation is up, wages are stagnating. inevitably there's going to be less discretionary income going around simply from the fact that paying for the essentials is taking up more of the pie than it used to. retail's already feeling it. home prices are down and credit has frozen up making many unable to refinance and access the free-flowing funds they'd gotten used to for years. assume that those who become unemployment statistics are naturally going to curtail their buying and may be selling some of their collection to pay for more important things. foreclosures are up as personal bankruptcies and credit card defaults. it's foolish to think the game-used community is somehow immune to all of it.

there seems to be the impression among some that game-used collectors as a whole are a well-heeled bunch simply by virtue of them being able to engage in this hobby. that may be true for those buying $90k babe ruth bats but after reading the "what do you do for a living?" thread on here, i'm willing to bet most collectors are average, middle-class, working joes. they've simply had the discretionary income in the past to spend a few thousand a year on their hobby. after all, most all of the middle-class has hobbies of some sort or another and all hobbies cost money. how many average joes golf? golfing costs money and i wouldn't say that simply because someone can afford to golf, then that means they're unlikely to feel the effects of a severe recession.

in the past, americans, as a whole, had a negative savings rate. recent reports indicate that the savings rate is going up as many are becoming fearful of the future and are finally starting to save for the rainy days ahead. these savings are obviously coming from the discretionary income that many chose to freely spend previously.

jeff scott raised an idea that some may be funnelling their investment dollars into the game-used market as opposed to more traditional investments. that may be true but i wonder how much of the game-used market those types of folks really account for.

there's always a time lag with these things. it's not like someone loses their job on a monday and liquidates their collection on a tuesday. i say we'll start seeing the effects starting in 'Q1 2009.

rudy.

joelsabi
10-23-2008, 08:38 PM
home prices are down and credit has frozen up making many unable to refinance and access the free-flowing funds they'd gotten used to for years.



Did you hear greenspan recommending the stabilizing of the real estate market. wouldnt that be nice. you gotta think many collected were created from the credit line from this type of equity.

Chris78
10-23-2008, 10:23 PM
I just wanted to add to my past response that this was thinking in terms of a long term perspective more than a short term. In the short term, yes you will see prices decline if you are selling, and better prices if you are buying. But in the long run, I do not see the game used hobby going away anytime soon, and when thinking about the economy you need to keep this in mind (long-term) as well.

Chris

panthrotc
10-24-2008, 12:22 AM
it all depends on what it is. I think the economy has effected 1 person. The seller. I say this because many people have become sellers that never were because in order to get that money in this diar time, they must part with items they never would if they had not lost their job. I collect McGwire. most people will not sell him now for the fact that his prices have dropped a large sum. But, now since money is even tighter people will not sell his stuff no matter what because they do not want to sell his stuff for rock bottom prices. But what angers me is the fact that people have alot of his stuff who are not as big of a fan like i am or others such as Robby or skyking. They do not sell his stuff now because they are waiting for him to make the hall. The fact is he is never making the hall, so instead of sitting on the merchandise, take the eventuall hit and throw it on the bay. But like others said, if you want something bad enought you will buy it no matter what. My big purchases has dropped though not because of the economy, but the stuff i want popps up maybe 1 time every 2 years if that.

skyking26
10-24-2008, 07:23 AM
In a quick review this morning it is VERY APPARENT that the economy is making a huge impact on selling prices of GU stuff anyway. Just as an example, I was torn last night to bid or not on a Kingman Oakland A's jacket. The fact I have one was the deciding point in not bidding on another - even though it was a different color and style. At $165 final on a player-provenance jacket, somebody got one hell of a deal and I could hazard a guess who that would be. I'll second guess that non-bidding participation by me til the cows come home. Fact is, stuff just is not moving, and it is very evident.

Like Panth stated, Mac stuff isn't moving because those that bought purchased when he was on top and paid high so they have to sell high. I still collect his stuff but have narrowed the collection. I'm not doing cleats anymore so I just sold a pair of Mac double signed cleats, heavy use with MAC in huge black marker under each tongue. I sold them and had trouble getting my $500 asking fee, but I was a Mac fan long before stardom, back when he was hitting 9 HRS a year in injury plagued seasons, so no, I did not take a hit, but could have done much better if I'd sold in the late 90's.

skyking26
01-21-2009, 04:39 PM
It's been months since this thread was revived...

I can say without I doubt, I see the economy NOT EFFECTING the hobby from dollars spent at all!!!

Just since the holidays, I've seen scrub Tigers DH mid 80's Barbaro Garbey bats fetch $242 and $366 respectively. Nobody outside Detroit knows or cares. I bid on a Dunn jersey today, his jerseys never supercede $400-450. $550 was the price today.

I also see people reluctant to absorb much loss, which tells me they are not desperate to start unloading the closets just yet. So, don't listen to all the nay-sayers out there trumpeting stories of non-prosperity in desperate times because from my vantage point......I'm not seeing it!!

cohibasmoker
01-21-2009, 05:29 PM
Do any of you see the current economic situation starting to affect either your decision to make purchases or the price realized from sales?

Absolutely NOT. Obama is on the job and all will be repaired. He will be unveiling his new Trillion dollar spending plan and as he has said, "we are going to spend our way out of this economic mess".

Jim

sylbry
01-21-2009, 05:42 PM
For what it's worth, two jerseys I sold this summer on ebay re-appeared on ebay in the past month. The first one sold for half of what I sold it for while the second one sold for two-thirds.

Chris78
01-21-2009, 05:56 PM
I have "hope" and "confidence" that the economy will be fixed in 6 months. President Obama promised with spending hundreds of millions of dollars that "change" is going to happen. Circuit City will realize that they can make it, as will KB Toys, and we will see the return of some of my favorite stores when I was a child such as Kiddie City and Clover.

skyking26
01-21-2009, 05:57 PM
For what it's worth, two jerseys I sold this summer on ebay re-appeared on ebay in the past month. The first one sold for half of what I sold it for while the second one sold for two-thirds.
I'm glad someone is getting the deals; I certainly am not. For that matter - if I am offered a bat direct it is at double or more what it's current market value should be...

I failed to mention 2 bats that just went on ebay the other night. I was on each, a Northrup and Gates Brown. Combined they went for over $900. Now tell me there is a recession? Apparently the new owners of these items have not heard about it yet nor felt the effects.

1986&2004Bosox
01-21-2009, 06:32 PM
Like anything in this world it is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Maybe it was the player themselves buying it, maybe a family member, maybe someone photo matched the bat to a home run or game winning hit. Maybe it was the last bat's they needed the point is price something is not reflective of what something worth, it's reflective of what two parties are willing to exchange it for.

skyking26
01-21-2009, 06:40 PM
Like anything in this world it is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Maybe it was the player themselves buying it, maybe a family member, maybe someone photo matched the bat to a home run or game winning hit. Maybe it was the last bat's they needed the point is price something is not reflective of what something worth, it's reflective of what two parties are willing to exchange it for.
R E A L L Y

kingjammy24
01-21-2009, 06:49 PM
i found this 1931 photo of babe ruth. 1931 being the height of the supposed "great depression". babe seems to be wearing a sensual fur coat and silky socks. pretty damning evidence that there was no "great depression".

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/9751/sillyuu9.jpg

rudy.

skyking26
01-21-2009, 06:51 PM
I guess it is the old saying Rudy, people find money whatever the circumstance...

spartakid
01-21-2009, 06:53 PM
Well, I don't think that fiscally speaking, Babe Ruth is an accurate example of the average American at the time of the Great Depression.

joelsabi
01-21-2009, 06:54 PM
i found this 1931 photo of babe ruth. 1931 being the height of the supposed "great depression". babe seems to be wearing a sensual fur coat and silky socks. pretty damning evidence that there was no "great depression".

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/9751/sillyuu9.jpg

rudy.

that fur coat is in that sports museum in los angeles.

grenda12
01-21-2009, 07:45 PM
If I really want it, I'm getting it. However, I find myself being a little more selective in what I get.

Im doing the same thing.

sylbry
01-22-2009, 08:33 AM
i found this 1931 photo of babe ruth. 1931 being the height of the supposed "great depression". babe seems to be wearing a sensual fur coat and silky socks. pretty damning evidence that there was no "great depression".

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/9751/sillyuu9.jpg

rudy.

On a related note, when the Depression was really hitting America hard Babe was holding out asking for $80,000 a season. He was offered $75,000 but wouldn't take it. A story goes a sportswriter came up to him and, in effect started chewing him out for holding out for so much money while the country is in a Depression and people are out of jobs and waiting in line for bare necessities such as food. Babe's response was, "no one told me." He signed for $75,000 the next day.

suicide_squeeze
01-22-2009, 10:42 AM
I have "hope" and "confidence" that the economy will be fixed in 6 months. President Obama promised with spending hundreds of millions of dollars that "change" is going to happen. Circuit City will realize that they can make it, as will KB Toys, and we will see the return of some of my favorite stores when I was a child such as Kiddie City and Clover.

Someone have Chris's home number?

We need to call and have his mother wake him up.

On a more serious note, I'm praying right along with you, Chris, but I don't see it. I work in high rises in Los Angeles, and all I am seeing is midnight move-outs. It's bad. Any and every company in Financials or sales are dropping off the face of the earth at an alarming rate.

The economy is effecting everything....our hobby included. The guys (& gals) here who have posted that they are being "more selective"....have hit the nail on the head. Something's got to give, and it's the volume of what we all want. We simply have to cut back and just go after those highly desired "I can't live without it" items.

That is why you are seeing most of the second and third tier items in the major auctions going for chump change with two or three bids....IMO.

Steve

suicide_squeeze
01-22-2009, 10:43 AM
For what it's worth, two jerseys I sold this summer on ebay re-appeared on ebay in the past month. The first one sold for half of what I sold it for while the second one sold for two-thirds.

Case in point, right here folks.

dafivehole
01-22-2009, 11:01 AM
I agree... "something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it." There might the odd exception to this rule but for the most part it holds true regardless of the economic climate.

Roger

commando
01-22-2009, 11:01 AM
Someone basically mentioned this earlier.... Some collectors are already established financially, and are less affected by this recession. Other collectors have lost their jobs and are barely paying the bills. When you look at the whole ball of wax, of course the hobby is taking a hit. It boils down to who is collecting what. Obviously, at least two or more collectors with money are looking to purchase scarce Tigers bats. I have to believe that the average collector who is worried about his job and finances is bidding less on items he is casually interested in.

WadeInBmore
01-22-2009, 04:08 PM
My two cents for what it's worth...

While the value of an item is only what someone is willing to pay for it, I do think this "recession" is affecting the hobby. Within the past month I've managed to acquire two items that I never imagined obtaining, however, do to the economy the sellers had to make sacrifices and sold items that they were planning on keeping for themselves.

cohibasmoker
01-22-2009, 04:45 PM
The sports memorabilia field is a HOBBY. We do not need sports memorabilia to survive. We need food to eat and shoes on our feet. But, those who were reckless in their purchases of sports memorabilia were probably reckless in their personal finances so yes, there will be an effect on the sports memorabilia field.

For the past eight years, people were buying homes and re-financing homes at a record pace. The Nasdaq, which is based on the development of and sales of electronic items, was through the roof - computers, i-phones, x-boxes, and big-screen TV's. You name it, people bought it. People bought new cars and were taking cruises twice a year. Disneyland posted record profits. Credit cards were issued like candy and at a record pace. Most everyone took one, two or more, and maxed them all out within Months.

Well guess what? It pay back time. Blame who you want but ultimately, it comes down to us - the individual. People are going to have to live within their means and if it comes down to a jersey or a pair of shoes for their kids, hopefully the kids will get new shoes.



Jim