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View Full Version : Who's more of a risk to collect?



brianborsch
05-09-2009, 08:49 AM
I was just curious on people's opinions on the matter. The two players I am looking at is Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.

Obviously Pujols has the best jump-start on anyone as he started in the MLB @ age 21 and has raked ever since. He is the best combo of plate discipline and power and in turn, his stuff is expensive. My issue is that in this steroid era, what proof or assurance do I have that he hasn't/isn't juicing? I don't want to throw down a ton of money only to find his stuff is worthless due to steroids.

Josh Hamilton on the other hand, started his MLB career late due to drug addiction. And that's just it. He is an addict and always will be. Who knows how the years of drug abuse will affect his body in the long-run. When he is playing though he is a beast (although his plate discipline is nowhere near Pujols). We know he is definitely not using any controlled substance against MLB policy as he is tested 3 times a week. So there is peace of mind there. And his stuff is typically cheaper than Pujol's stuff.

What are your thoughts?

brianborsch
05-09-2009, 09:19 AM
And I guess I don't really believe or have reason to believe that pUJOLS is using steroids. Its just so many of the "good" players have been busted. It's tough...

TriplexXxSports
05-09-2009, 09:22 AM
From a football fans perspective, I think that any big named baseball star is HIGH RISK at this point. These guys can't even have creatine with their raw egg shake in the morning without the worry of getting suspended.

With all the recent steroid hype, any player that is doing well will be under the spotlight.

That's just my do cents, and I must admit, I could care less about baseball. Especially because of what some of these players have done to the game.

corsairs22
05-09-2009, 09:50 AM
I would advise a rotation away from home run hitters and into line drive types going forward for the next few quarters. In all seriousness, it is a sad state of affairs, but Pujols is so darn good that he invites suspicion.

spartakid
05-09-2009, 10:42 AM
I have been wanting to get a Vlad bat, but I have a really hard time believing that he didn't use roids, in fact I'd probably put money on it. The only question for me is will he get caught? His decline in numbers could be more than just injury, but at least he would (hypothetically) be smart enough to stop. I've also been watching David Ortiz's numbers fall astonishingly quickly, if you get my drift. I think I'm going to steer to the newer generation that hopefully realizes that they'll get caught if they juice. Ricardo

worldchamps
05-09-2009, 11:14 AM
Josh is drug tested every 5 days, not sure if that is also for steriods, but i would not be worried about him ever going back to drugs, i would be worried more about his body breaking down to damage already done. But hopefully that is not the case, there is not a better person in baseball.

brianborsch
05-09-2009, 11:24 AM
That's my concern with Josh. I would imagine afew years of crack addiction has to have some effect. I read an article stating that he is indeed tested for steroids as well. So if he uses, he will get caught just like that.

Anyways, there are many players who have not been found out yet. Although I think Pujols is clean, his stuff is so expensive that it creates a huge risk. Its hard for him though. The more good he does, the more people will doubt him.

the3lads
05-09-2009, 11:49 AM
Whay would you say that Vlad used drugs? Just because a player puts up good (not astounding) numbers it does not mean that he is/was using. He is around 34/35, so that is the age when players tend to loose their power. Vlad is a big guy, but not ripped like Bonds/Mac/Canseco/Sosa/Ramirez, so it would be unfair to place a cloud over him. Before you ask, I am NOT an Angels fan. Can't stand them!

Just a word on the "top" players. I think we can rule Jeter out of the steroid mix. His build has not changed over the years; just a little more puppy fat as one ages. Same with his production, which has remained steady.

One last point. We should not bemoan players who used PEDs BEFORE they were banned in baseball. They were not doing anything illegal WITHIN baseball. It is the fault of MLB for being so, well, lazy. Players caught using after the ban, should be thrown out for good. There are lifetime bans in other sports. If not lifetime, at the very least several seasons.

Just my thoughts.

both-teams-played-hard
05-09-2009, 12:20 PM
Not even close:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353998,00.html

suicide_squeeze
05-09-2009, 12:42 PM
Pujols is unreal......so far and away a better hitter than ......well, anybody in the game NOT on PED's.

So yeah, there is risk.

If I were Albert and I were clean, I'd ask to be tested once weekly to remove ANY doubt, and to protect his legacy. He is so far and away the greatest hitter in this era, that he would be a fool....if he is clean......to risk any chance of having himself lowered to the "guilt by association" classification.

Josh Hamilton, because of his late start, will probably never make it to the stardom of a Hall of Famer. That said, his stuff is desireable because he for SURE is clean, and he is a major talent in the game. Plus, there is the fan-favorite part of it. You can't help but pull for a guy who has sunken to the depths of hell, only to resurect himself as a player by working hard to right his wrongs, to overcome his own deficiencies as a human being. It's a feel-good story in sports, and he has earned my respect for what he has been able to overcome. I would love to own one of his gamers (bats) somewhere down the road. Hopefully he will start pulling aside his home run bats, inscribe them, and get a marketing manager to sell them to us in the hobby.

AWA85
05-09-2009, 12:47 PM
Not even close:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353998,00.html


:D I agree, that would be a little more risky!

rj_lucas
05-09-2009, 03:20 PM
Brian, I'll post the same response I just made in another thread, with apologies to anyone who read it already.

To his credit, Pujols answers to a higher authority than Bud Selig:

http://www.pujolsfamilyfoundation.org/faith.htm

If Pujols were ever shown to have juiced, for many of his fans (myself included) it would be tremendously sad and disheartening for reasons that have nothing to do with baseball...

My bigger concern in regards to collecting Pujols is the risk of injury e.g. known issues with his elbow and plantar fasciitis.

That said, I wouldn't discourage you from taking the chance. Owning a piece of Pujols' memorabilia, in some sense, gives you a personal stake in his career. It certainly adds to the excitement when he performs his heroics, at least it has for me.

Rick
rickjlucas@gmail.com

joelsabi
05-09-2009, 03:31 PM
Brian, I'll post the same response I just made in another thread, with apologies to anyone who read it already.

To his credit, Pujols answers to a higher authority than Bud Selig:

http://www.pujolsfamilyfoundation.org/faith.htm

If Pujols were ever shown to have juiced, for many of his fans (myself included) it would be tremendously sad and disheartening for reasons that have nothing to do with baseball...

My bigger concern in regards to collecting Pujols is the risk of injury e.g. known issues with his elbow and plantar fasciitis.

That said, I wouldn't discourage you from taking the chance. Owning a piece of Pujols' memorabilia, in some sense, gives you a personal stake in his career. It certainly adds to the excitement when he performs his heroics, at least it has for me.

Rick
rickjlucas@gmail.com

great post. thanks

GoTigers
05-09-2009, 09:19 PM
Vladi is a much bigger risk. I remember reading that he was close to the "trainer" that supplied Arod. I dont believe he's on them anymore, but he could get busted in the future if his name is on the secret list.

I'm sure Ortiz juiced. His numbers with the Twins were far from great, and once he got to Boston they improved dramatically. I believe Pujols is clean, there was an article in SI a month or two ago, and he talked about playing under suspicion and he would gladly be tested 7 days a week.

Jeter, Griffey, Pujols, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Ichiro, Frank Thomas, all clean

joelsabi
05-09-2009, 09:31 PM
Vladi is a much bigger risk. I remember reading that he was close to the "trainer" that supplied Arod. I dont believe he's on them anymore, but he could get busted in the future if his name is on the secret list.

I'm sure Ortiz juiced. His numbers with the Twins were far from great, and once he got to Boston they improved dramatically. I believe Pujols is clean, there was an article in SI a month or two ago, and he talked about playing under suspicion and he would gladly be tested 7 days a week.

Jeter, Griffey, Pujols, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Ichiro, Frank Thomas, all clean

here is the article.

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1153053/index.htm

spartakid
05-09-2009, 10:17 PM
Whay would you say that Vlad used drugs? Just because a player puts up good (not astounding) numbers it does not mean that he is/was using. He is around 34/35, so that is the age when players tend to loose their power. Vlad is a big guy, but not ripped like Bonds/Mac/Canseco/Sosa/Ramirez, so it would be unfair to place a cloud over him. Before you ask, I am NOT an Angels fan. Can't stand them!

Just a word on the "top" players. I think we can rule Jeter out of the steroid mix. His build has not changed over the years; just a little more puppy fat as one ages. Same with his production, which has remained steady.

One last point. We should not bemoan players who used PEDs BEFORE they were banned in baseball. They were not doing anything illegal WITHIN baseball. It is the fault of MLB for being so, well, lazy. Players caught using after the ban, should be thrown out for good. There are lifetime bans in other sports. If not lifetime, at the very least several seasons.

Just my thoughts.



I don't have any proof, but I just think he did, I know it's natural for players' numbers to decline with age, but there's just something about it.... Again, i was planning on getting his bat, and I still hope I'm wrong, I don't want to see another big name get implicated, but I would be willing to bet money that he did juice in the past (if not now as well) It's a shame, but it's definitely too big a liability for me to get his bat at the moment because I think it's just a matter of time... Ricardo

dirtyla2000
05-10-2009, 11:20 AM
There is no proof,Vladdy took a beating here in MONTREAL on the Big O s artificial turf otherwise known as cement,so I think its taking its toll! He was an offensive machine when he was a skinny kid! We also killed Dawsons knees in MTL.Vladdy still has a chance to beat Gehrigs record for most consecutive .300 and over 25 hr seaons!

geoff
05-10-2009, 02:44 PM
I hope Vlad does not also because I spent alot on a Game Used Bat a few Years back.

KrAzY3
05-10-2009, 03:46 PM
Any player who is one of the most popular becomes a huge risk. He might not even have to slow down his production or get in any sort of trouble. People might simply become bored.

Josh took years off of his baseball career. That's never a good thing. Drug risks aside, Josh Hamilton is 28 and his production is down. It's not a good time to jump on board because he's regained popularity but there is absolutely nothing to indicate his career numbers will be that impressive. Pujols is one year older, but his numbers are incredibly far ahead. However, Pujols is so popular that he has to carry a huge risk. Steroids? Serious injury? A lot of things could happen and he could take a huge tumble.

To me, the guys to collect (if you really are concerned about risk) are the ones flying under the radar. Look at the numbers and try to pick out the guys who started their careers early (no guys like Ichiro) and whose numbers seem to exceed their value.

I haven't been able to get involved in Game Used collecting (unless those evil cards with cut up jerseys count...) but I have been involved in card collecting. People are always into something new and flashy. To me the key to keeping the risk out of your collection is to not buy blindly into hype and just be logical. A guy who is almost 30 can't have a great career if he's just getting started...

brianborsch
05-10-2009, 04:40 PM
I hear what you say about Hamilton and Pujols. But why not Ichiro? I mean he certainly is not juicing and he produces in huge quantities every year. In fact he would be a good one (but expensive) to collect as this year he has a chance (yet again) to do something no one else has been able to do:

Collect 200 hits and hit over .300 for 9 consecustive seasons, breaking Wee Willie Keeler's record of 108 years! Sure, he could get injured before that and end his career, but this is as close as you can get to greatness.

I think Ichiro is a valid one to collect, as long as your pocketbook is big enough!

KrAzY3
05-10-2009, 11:27 PM
I hear what you say about Hamilton and Pujols. But why not Ichiro?

I could be way off base in regard to memorabilia collecting since he's very popular in Japan, but in terms of America I don't see him as sustaining popularity. He seems to have peaked at 30 (to be expected) and last year his slugging percentage fell below .400. Even with his late start, I expect him to clear 2,000 hits but I think his average probably ends up around .320 and his totals won't put him in the same conversation as guys like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn.

This is all from the cautious collector viewpoint. If you collect a guy because you like him a lot, great! But if you are wary of losing value, I think you have to look at things like age when deciding what a player will accomplish. There are some players with shortened careers who have kept up their popularity for various reasons (Kirby Puckett, Sandy Koufax, Thurman Munson and Jackie Robinson come to mind) but the list of former superstars who are now overlooked is much longer. Albert Belle and Mo Vaughn are great examples of players that put up great numbers but had shortened careers. How memorable are they? Jose Canseco used to be one of, if not the most popular players and now he's best known for his tell all books. Daryll Strawberry, Fernando Valenzuela, Eric Davis, Doc Gooden, etc... One of the most common problems is not that they don't have excellent numbers, many of those guys do have very good career averages, they just couldn't sustain it for long enough due to various reasons.

So, when you look at a guy it isn't just how great he was for a short period of time, it is how great can he be over a long period of time? To provide a example, if Mark Prior returns this year he's about the age Josh Hamilton is and Ichiro was when he made it to the majors. He already feels pretty washed up doesn't he? Another example is Cal Ripken Jr. Bit by bit what he did in his career really isn't all that spectacular. It's the body of work that helps made him one of the most popular baseball players alive.

I could just be speaking from lack of knowledge though. For all I know Fernando's stuff fetches as much as Greg Maddux but from my knowledge of the card collecting side of things there's not much of a comparison.

brianborsch
05-11-2009, 12:28 AM
But regardless of cumulative numbers, Ichiro will be considered one of the greats amongst Gwynn and definitely above Boggs. Hitting over .300 and getting at least 200 hits per season for 8 years straight is something only 1 other player did in the last 108 years! And that player was one of the best hitters considering his batting eye and bat control. What to speak of his 262 hit season! Sure, he may not get to 3,000 hits, but he will break 2,000 and will be a first ballot HOFer for sure. If you factor his japan numbers, he should finish with more hits than Rose as well. Who knows. Maybe he will play for a long time more. He certainly takes care of himself.

Slugger33
05-13-2009, 02:48 PM
JUST COLLECT CANSECO!! he is the most entertaining individual from MLB not to mention the STEROID ERA!! He will always be remembered good or bad!! He is in to movies, boxing, MMA, television you name it so his name is very well known throughout the world. check out his new website!!

www.canseco33.webs.com (http://www.canseco33.webs.com)