Lack of action = red flag?

[kingjammy24]

if you're bidding on a relatively desireable item at auction and there's absolutely no action on it at all, would that raise a serious red flag for you?

i remember during the tris speaker bat debacle, either mike rose or chris cavalier said that during the auction, the lack of action on the bat gave them cause to think something was wrong with the bat.

if i was bidding on a 1992 joe carter shirt and by the last day of the auction there were no other bids, i'd probably start panicking and wonder what others knew about the shirt that i didn't.

i thought of this when i saw this recently ended auction and it's 1 lone bid: http://www.americanmemorabilia.com/Auction_Item.asp?Auction_ID=46812

i wonder if the winner wonders why noone else bid on it.

rudy.

[suave1477]

Well look at it like this, the flip side of the coin imagine how the seller feels.
When you have action on a item it promotes more action because people are seeing it is being desired.
If no one sees bidding on an item then it takes away from the desirability.

In the end it hurts the seller.

Example from my own.

I recently had an item for sale on ebay. I had 15 people watching it all the way through from the first day of listing till the end.
By the first day I am thinking WOW this item is probably going to really move. The second day no bids, third day no bids and so on. In the last 30 minutes of the auction ending I got 3 emails back to back of offers for less then what the Jersey was listed for. I let it run its course and in the last minute I got 1 bid.

Now personally I believe all the people were watching the item to see if someone else was going to bid. Since no one was bidding, I think it made everyone a bit leary. Yet if someone from the begining would have put a bid in, it might have sparked a bunch of bids.

So even though the item was completely legit with paperwork and all. I got one bid at my listing price. So if anything the seller gets hurt more because he technically takes a loss of the possibilties of where it could have ended.

[allstarsplus]

if you're bidding on a relatively desireable item at auction and there's absolutely no action on it at all, would that raise a serious red flag for you?

i remember during the tris speaker bat debacle, either mike rose or chris cavalier said that during the auction, the lack of action on the bat gave them cause to think something was wrong with the bat.

if i was bidding on a 1992 joe carter shirt and by the last day of the auction there were no other bids, i'd probably start panicking and wonder what others knew about the shirt that i didn't.

i thought of this when i saw this recently ended auction and it's 1 lone bid: http://www.americanmemorabilia.com/Auction_Item.asp?Auction_ID=46812

i wonder if the winner wonders why noone else bid on it.

rudy.

I would say the psychology of Selling 101 would be that most buyers are deterred from an auction with no bidders.

It would probably make me nervous too.

In this economy, it is unfortunately happening a lot to good items so I wouldn't necessarily put up the Red Flag due to the economy, but proceed with normal caution and do your homework.

[allstarsplus]

I would say the psychology of Selling 101 would be that most buyers are deterred from an auction with no bidders.

It would probably make me nervous too.

In this economy, it is unfortunately happening a lot to good items so I wouldn't necessarily put up the Red Flag due to the economy, but proceed with normal caution and do your homework.

Meant to say "no bidders towards the end of an auction".

[suicide_squeeze]

Rudy,

I'm not sure it had only one bid.

AMI's completed auctions (when reviewing them later) default to showing "1" bid on almost every item. I noticed that a long time ago, and I'm not sure why it does that. And I'm also not sure why it does this on most items, but not all.

There may have been 5-10 bids on it, but since the auction is closed, it shows as "1" in this particular case.

Maybe someone cares enough to call AMI and ask that question? I certainly don't.;)

[suicide_squeeze]

Rudy,

I'm not sure it had only one bid.

AMI's completed auctions (when reviewing them later) default to showing "1" bid on almost every item. I noticed that a long time ago, and I'm not sure why it does that. And I'm also not sure why it does this on most items, but not all.

There may have been 5-10 bids on it, but since the auction is closed, it shows as "1" in this particular case.

Maybe someone cares enough to call AMI and ask that question? I certainly don't.;)


BUT LET'S HOPE IT DID!!!

That means people are getting smarter.....because that jersey is.....well.........Let's just say NOT GOOD is an understatement?

[flaco1801]

tell me why a buyer would bid early??? a smart buyer always waits for the end, there is no plus to bid early sheesh..

[Birdbats]

A lack of bidding can say more about the auction house than the item.

And on eBay, it's typical for no bids to be placed until the end. In fact, too much action can be a red flag on eBay. When I see multiple bids placed on an item with several days remaining, it makes me wonder if someone is bidding it up artificially.

[gnishiyama]

So the starting bid was $943?? :confused:
Goh Nishiyama

[allstarsplus]

A lack of bidding can say more about the auction house than the item.

And on eBay, it's typical for no bids to be placed until the end. In fact, too much action can be a red flag on eBay. When I see multiple bids placed on an item with several days remaining, it makes me wonder if someone is bidding it up artificially.

I always like to get in one early bid at or near the Opening Price on eBay as my reminder since I don't snipe. This also helps IMO so the seller doesn't end it early. I generally set in my mind how much the max I want to pay is and then I set that the last day of the auction. I do the same on the MLB Auctions. If I get outbid then I get outbid and don't get caught up in the last minute auction excitement.

[kingjammy24]

ok, let me qualify my original question by saying that it assumes a healthy economy and that only 1 bid has come through until the very end. the point really was to ascertain whether people would get nervous if a desireable item is attracting a complete lack of attention. personally, i think it would make me nervous. if the economy is healthy and it's the final few minutes of the auction on a desireable item and i'm the only bidder, i personally would start wondering where i've screwed up.

i agree and find it interesting the a lack of bids fuels a self-fulfilling cycle in that it scares others off from bidding which turn scares even more people off which in turn...

also agree with birdbats that too many bids may signal shill bidding. so it seems like what you'd want is some ideal range of bids. not too many and not none.

and i don't know why but i got a chuckle from goh's post. a starting bid of $943. only at AMI!

by the way, i followed that canseco auction and from what i could tell i only saw 1 bid until the end. i may have missed out on the last few minutes of it. the only amount i ever saw was $943 and i followed it since it started since i was curious how many people were going to be suckered by it.

rudy.

[Vintagedeputy]

I never bid on an item until my snipe fires. It makes me carzy to see people bidding something up with days and days left before the auction ends. I see it, I set my snipe, and I walk away. My snipe is my max bid. If I win, cool. If I lose, it went for more than I valued it at.

[raider1088]

i was recently watching an auction for a lastings milledge game worn new orleans jersey with the zephyers coa.right down to the end nobody bidded on it,which got me wondering about it.but after emailing the guy that was selling it and finding out it was from somebody i trusted i ended up getting the jersey for what it listed at which i was very happy about.now if i can get his norfolk jersey.

[suicide_squeeze]

tell me why a buyer would bid early??? a smart buyer always waits for the end, there is no plus to bid early sheesh..


flaco....

You are showing your preference of auctions......Ebay.

You would be correct, as bidding early and/or often on an auction in ebay is self defeating and silly, unless you place a rediculously low shot in just to keep tract of it. I know I have a friend who does just that, to try to discourage other bidders who knows he's going after it. Who knows if it works.....

But what I think Rudy meant was in the major auction houses, you MUST place an initial bid on any item you want to bid on after the "initial bidding" ends, and the "after-hours bidding" starts. Absent of your one initial bid, you are "locked out" from participating in that auction on that particular item in after hours trading, when the serious bidding commences.

And Rudy,

Assuming that was the case, and the Canseco jersey only received 1 bid......Yes, that's a HUGE red flag. I wouldn't touch it for all the reasons mentioned. Obviously one would have to assume the general public was "onto something" you may have missed. If the item is of a superstar, and checks out accross the board....the economy wouldn't matter. It would have bids on it....at least 5-10, and in some cases a LOT more.

Here's my theory on the Canseco jersey:

Rudy, you jarred my memory. I believe I saw it early on, already at $943, and with only one bid.

That tells me right off the bat to stay away, because it was probably the silent "reserve" placed on it by whomever the seller/consigner was, most likely an insider who is associated with AMI, or a personal friend of one of them, so they just jammed the figure out there (giving the appearance someone bid on it) to see if they could get one more bid on it. If they do, they achieved "offing" the fake retail garbage and getting what some lessor schooled collector paid for it originally. These losers can't even get "creative" in their shady techniques.

I have another theory. You can all think what you will of it, but I'm fairly confident it goes on with AMI. I believe they have a "source" that from time to time supplies them with this fake garbage that is made in a deliberate attempt to appear, for all intents and purposes....to be real authentic game used garb.

The only problem is......the guys here on the site are a LOT smarter than the crims making this stuff up in a back room of a sweat shop. They just keep screwing up the details! I mean....where else is all of this garbage coming from? Softball teams?? Maybe so, but I like my theory better.

In any case, the Canseco auction looks like the plan backfired. If they did throw out the reserve price wanted by whomever was selling it, it looks as though not ONE additional bid was rendered.....if that is in fact what happened. You'll then see it reappear in a future auction of AMI's. Unless they read this......then they're just plain screwed.

God, don't you LOVE this site???:cool:

[Vintagedeputy]

i was recently watching an auction for a lastings milledge game worn new orleans jersey with the zephyers coa.right down to the end nobody bidded on it,which got me wondering about it.but after emailing the guy that was selling it and finding out it was from somebody i trusted i ended up getting the jersey for what it listed at which i was very happy about.now if i can get his norfolk jersey.


OH NO! Another Milledge collector trying to steal all of my stuff! :)