Status of the Game Used Market?

[stkmtimo]

Hi everyone,

Many of you may remember me from a few years back but I’ve taken a break from the hobby to focus on other areas of collecting, namely autographs. Unfortunately, given the economic situation, I’m in the unenviable position of being forced to sell some of my better named gamers in order to raise some money. For example, I had to put my 2005 Astros Roy Oswalt gamer, one of my favorites, on eBay where it has been listed at a fixed price without any takers.

Sadly, this seems to be the worst time to sell since the market appears to be very, very dry and virtually inactive. I could be wrong, though. Maybe nobody wants an Oswalt at an attractive price – it happens! I’m trying to avoid selling other big named gamers so hopefully everything works out there. Otherwise, I may have to sell other bits and pieces to avoid the major ones that I have. Since I’ve been away for a few years (last bought a jersey in 2005) I was wondering what everyone thought about this and what the market is like currently – please fill me in!

Thanks,

Tim
stkmtimo@yahoo.com

[mariner_gamers]

For me the best time as a buyer and seller was about 4-5 months ago. Prices were fair and folks were moving items they had sat on for years in anticipation of recession. Personally I purchased about 50 game bats in a two month period because of the prices and selection. I also sold a few Arod items on ebay and was pleased with the prices I was getting. Then when the market tanked the buying almost stopped overnight. I was at the end of several items in a 7 day ebay listing and activity just stopped. I have not listed/sold anything since then and don't plan on it. This seems to be the case everywhere with the exception of those forced to sell because of financial difficulties. There are buyers still out there but they are much more selective and price sensitive.

Davis

[stkmtimo]

For me the best time as a buyer and seller was about 4-5 months ago. Prices were fair and folks were moving items they had sat on for years in anticipation of recession. Personally I purchased about 50 game bats in a two month period because of the prices and selection. I also sold a few Arod items on ebay and was pleased with the prices I was getting. Then when the market tanked the buying almost stopped overnight. I was at the end of several items in a 7 day ebay listing and activity just stopped. I have not listed/sold anything since then and don't plan on it. This seems to be the case everywhere with the exception of those forced to sell because of financial difficulties. There are buyers still out there but they are much more selective and price sensitive.

Davis

Davis,

I agree with you. I'm not in any financial difficulties luckily but I feel right now as if cash and liquidity in general are so much more important than some gamers I have sitting in my closet. Though, with the way things are going now, the gamers may be the better store of value!

Tim

[aeneas01]

i think credit cards play a big role in this hobby and the credit card crunch is taking its toll. not only are cards harder to come by, but more and more card issuers are rescinding existing large credit lines to the point that many card holders have very little credit remaining above their existing balances. those that were in the habit of using their credit cards to purchase inventory and flipping it shortly after, have definitely felt the squeeze. in fact i believe that the majority of weak holiday sales can be blamed on these shrinking credit lines - card holders that once had thousands of dollars of credit on their cards are now finding that their limits have been drastically reduced.

yet having said that, i've seen many items recently sell on ebay that have fetched as much as they ever have - especially items that don't surface very often.

...

[genius]

I wish more auction houses let me use a credit card! I try to keep my collecting at "zero-sum", meaning if I buy something new I sell some other stuff to cover it. That keeps me from worrying too much about what I can get these days for some items. I just made a pretty hefty purchase and have been selling items to cover it, have a bit of a ways to go and I sent a major auction house a list of some items that I might be interested in consigning to their next auction. No reply which I thought was interesting. Are they hesitant to take consignments because of the lower prices things are fetching?

[scottanservitz]

I agree with Robert 100%. Rare hi end pieces are holding their own in the current market state. Collectors of these aren't pinched as much as the general public is right now. I can go one step further. I collect NFL jerseys of more popular players. I usually purchase one a year due to them usually going for a grand or so. I have to save and be very particular when they come up for sale. I have picked up a couple in the last month for about 25-30% of past market value. I even picked one up from an auction house with the 20% buyer's premium and it still only was about 30% of market value. It is a great time to buy if you have the funds. With the holidays most buyers are very pinched with disposable income. As far as selling now it is not the time unless you absolutely have to. Some people unfortunately have to to be able to pay bills and have $ for holiday shopping. I feel for everyone in this situation. But having said that, anyone sitting on inventory to make a profit, then that is a whole other story. Unless it is an extremely rare piece that is holding its value, I would be leery about selling now. The market for assets is weak. And as Robert indicated, those playing the game with credit cards is a very good example where it just isn't what it was in the past. Too risky. There have been numerous threads on this, but I have to think it will be slow until the economy picks up again. When this happens is anyone's guess.
Scott

[kingjammy24]

a few disjointed thoughts:

- aside from the professional dealers who do this as their main bread and butter, most sellers wouldn't choose to sell in a down market which this obviously is. who sells in a downmarket when they don't have to? distressed sellers. distressed sales are naturally going to bring lower prices.

- what most initially thought to be a subprime mess has obviously evolved into something far greater. (even it were simply relegated to a subprime mess, the trickle-down effects would've been greater than some estimated). companies entirely removed from housing and banking, of all shape and size, are laying people off, even those thought to be recession proof such as movie studios, casinos, and even the NFL. (the NFL really surprised me given their miniscule staff relative to their revenue). there's no doubt there are fewer buyers and remaining buyers have less to spend. prices for most items in this hobby are naturally going to decrease similar to the prices of most discretionary consumer goods.

- perhaps many buyers are waiting on the sidelines for now knowing that things are only going to get worse which will lead to increased supply and further reductions in prices. it's a little like the current housing market; why buy now when you know for certain that prices are going to be even lower in 6 months and the supply/selection will be even greater?

- some have suggested that the entire game-used hobby is recession- proof/immune to the current economic malaise. i think their logic is something along the lines that if you can afford to spend a few thousand on jerseys, then you must belong to that upper echilon that's immune to severe economic downturns. the folks who are really immune to all of this buy gulfsteams and van goghs, not pujols bats and bryant warmups. i don't see many gehrig shirts and cobb bats posted in the monthly "pick up" threads. i don't think this hobby is immune at all and i think we're starting to see the effects. many have commented on how many items at mastro sold for considerably less than they did previously.

- i agree with robert's ideas about credit card usage and limits. i'd also add home equity loans and lines of credit to that. i know lots of people who lived the high life from their home equity and thought it would never end. obviously, all of that's come to an abrupt end as banks either drastically lowered limits or just rescinded lines altogether. with appreciation rates now in negative percentages, there's nothing left to squeeze.

as i mentioned a few months ago, i think prices will continue to decrease, supply will increase, and for those fortunate enough to remain financially healthy in 2009, this may be one of the best buying opportunities in a long time.

rudy.

[worldchamps]

I am starting to wonder if the card companies are not buying game used items like they used to, and that is why prices are not as high as usual.

Thoughts???

[tym]

I am just a collector and sometimes sell for personal cash or trade purposes 6 to 12 times a year, mostly trade. Especially during the off season it’s kind of like doing the trades the MLB team owners get to do, helps take care of the offseason boredom.
But I can speak to one trend I have noticed on my site over the last 6 months and that is overall visits have gone from 2,000 visitors a month to 4,000. 80% of those visitors, based on the graphs from my web site analysis software are on the baseball related aspect of my site, the other 20% are CFF based searchers, with 90% of the growth being in Mariners/baseball traffic.
This week alone I had over a dozen visitors ask if I would sell an item. I sold none.
Net is I think people are more likely to look at their collecting interest right now because they may want to build their collections and are using their money for that pleasure and it’s a distraction from the current economy, also some think people might need to sell, and dealers are trying to get deals from known collectors in the hope of they made need to dump some.
I will test this shortly as we are doing a on-line auction after January with all proceeds going to CFF on our site and we have another CFF auction in May, 2009 at Safeco field….Then I can look at year after year results!
Cheers and Happy Holidays,
Ty

[Chris78]

The "current status" of the game used market is feeling the effects of the economic situation just like anything else. Right now is a good time to buy if you can afford it as there are more good deals now than ever before. If you are selling, this is a bad time to be selling because you will not get as much as you probably want for the piece. My suggestion would be to hold off on selling if that is your plan and if you feel that you can afford something then you can go ahead with your purchase.

The "future status" of the game used market is that I feel that this hobby has room for expansion -- but that could be good or bad depending on your viewpoint. More teams are starting to get into the game used hobby and this should lead to more interest in the hobby as more consumers will see that these type of items can be bought. The question in the future will be supply and demand. Will there be more demand (which will cause prices/values to go up more) or will there be more supply (which will cause prices/values to go down)?

No one has really mentioned the hobby from a "future perspective" so I would be interested in seeing what some of you have to say. Is it better to have more product available and more people buying it (more interest in the hobby), or is it better to have less product available and less people buying it (less interest in the hobby)?

Chris

[genius]

I may be wrong on this but I focus on the vintage items because the modern replicas look virtually identical to the game-worn items. So from a display standpoint, there's not much difference. Say you have a Peyton Manning gamer and I have an authentic replica purchased on NFL.com for $275. Or Sydney Crosby's 2008 opening-day jersey from Stockholm which is on ebay for $10K, compared to dozens of replicas also on ebay. Put them both in a frame inside a sports bar and you'd have to get pretty close to tell any difference between the gamer and the store-bought. I think the vintage items will hold up a bit better in the long-term.