David Ortiz Hall of Fame Bound????

[suave1477]

I would like everyones opinion here!!!

I just picked up today a players game sued bat who is just about a sure shot hall of famer which would just about be my first closest to a hall of famers game used bat i have.

And as I mentioned in January Pick ups thread I also picked up a David Ortiz bat.


So here is my question by either his stats or being a fan favorite or just a player you respect in the game or hate.

Do you think Ortiz has possible chances of making it into the hall of fame???

Here is my thoughts:
His numbers point in that direction BUT he is not young and would just about have to keep up the same exact pace for the next 10 years for him to put up hall of fame numbers. Which would make him 42 which would be hard for him to do and he is a heavy guy imagine in 10 years from now, dont think he will have the same power and or agility.

Tell me what your thoughts are or if I missed anything?

[nate]

Being a D.H. in the American League should help his longevity and with Fenway's right field fence, the opportunity is there offensively. He should have a shot at 500 if he can stay healthy. Then it will depend on the vote.

[bscott]

This is a very good question.

Ortiz has performed well under pressure and in the postseason, and current prices for his game used items reflect this. His career statistics, however, reveal that it will be quite a challenge to reach the 500-home-run benchmark seemingly required of power hitters to get into the Hall.

Ortiz has 266 career home runs and 880 RBI right now.
He's a big guy with a history of recent physical problems. Bad knees, for instance.
He's 32 years old going into this season, and he'll turn 33 in November.

If he hits 34 home runs this year, that gives him 300.

Or, another way to look at it: if he can stay really healthy for another five seasons, hitting an average of 35 home runs, that'll give him 441 for his career.

Or, yet another hypothetical: if Ortiz hits an average of 30 home runs for the next 7 years, he ends up with 476 dingers for his career.


So there are questions:
Can a big man like Ortiz stay healthy long enough to put up the numbers?
Will voters overlook the 500 home run benchmark if he fails to reach it?
Will voters give added weight to his postseason home runs?
What will history say about his role in helping the Red Sox win the world series?

I say, if he reaches the magic number of 500, he's IN.
Anything short of that, and he may eventually get in, but he won't be a first ballot guy.


I hate to give too much weight to his career numbers, but when it comes to Hall-of-Fame voters, statistics do seem to rule the game.

I say: watch his performance the next couple of years and keep an eye on his health. At the very worst, he could collapse under his own weight a la Mo Vaughn.

-bscott.

P.S. I'm a Yankee fan, but watching Ortiz has been a pleasure. The man is clutch.

[metsbats]

Ortiz is signed up until 2010 with the Sox. Lets say for arguements sake he plays out 4 years (option year is picked up in 2011) and keeps up his pace from the last 4 years. Here's what his total HR, RBIS, and hits may look like.

277 Current home run total
177 Projected next 4 years
----
445 Home Runs

880 Current RBI total
541 Projected next 4 years
----
1421 RBIS

1219 Current hit total
677 Projected next 4 years
----
1896 Hits

If he hangs around assuming he's still healthy (a major factor) and can be signed, and can play till he's 39, he may be over 500 hrs, 1600 RBIs, and 2200+ hits.

These numbers are better in the home run (382) and RBI (1451) category than another Bosox slugger Jim Rice. Rice has the edge in hits with 2452.

However Ortiz has a better relationship with the media and a fan favorite (not just in Boston), does lots of charity work and is great ambassador of the Game which is a great set of intangibles.

Here's some Ortiz highlights as of end of the 2007 season:

4-time All-Star (2004-2007)
Top 5 MVP (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MLB_Most_Valuable_Player_award) vote-receiver five times (5th, 2003; 4th, 2004; 2nd, 2005; 3rd, 2006; 4th, 2007)
2005 Hank Aaron Award (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hank_Aaron_Award) winner
4-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_AL_Silver_Slugger_winners_at_designated_hi tter) (2004-2007)
5-time winner of the Edgar Martinez Award (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edgar_Martinez_Award) (2003-2007)
Led the American League (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_League) in extra base hits 3 times (2004, 2005, 2007)
MVP of the American League Championship Series (2004)
Led the American League (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_League) in Home Runs (2006)
Led the American League (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_League) in Runs Batted In (2005, 2006)
American League (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_League) Player of the Month (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_of_the_Month) for September 2005 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005) and July 2006 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006).
Member of the 2004 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004) Boston Red Sox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Red_Sox) team that won the World Series (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series).
Red Sox single season home run leader (54; 2006)
Tied with Babe Ruth for AL single season home run record in road games (32; 2006)
First player ever to hit two walk-off home runs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walk-off_home_run) in the same postseason (against the Angels (ALDS) and Yankees (ALCS), 2004)
First player in Red Sox history to hit 40 or more home runs in three consecutive seasons (2004-2006)
Set new record for home runs by a DH in 2005 (47), then again in 2006 (54)
5 straight seasons of at least 30 HR and 100 RBI (2003-2007)
Tied with Billy Hatcher (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Hatcher) for all-time post-season consecutive on-base streak (10)
Member of the 2007 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007) Boston Red Sox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Red_Sox) team that won the World Series (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_World_Series).
I think the two time WS championship with the Red Sox (an possibly more before he retires) will certainly help as does the HR records for a DH in 2005,06 too.

Ortiz is was certainly one of the most dominate players in the AL so far though Arod is the most dominate and has the MVPs but Ortiz has two rings and Arod has none.

IMHO given his current accomplishments and if he can reach the goals at mimimum above and a few more, Ortiz would have a great shot at the HOF.

David

[JETEFAN]

Be strictly a one tool player, he would have to have out of this world offensive numbers. I don't think he is hall of fame material.

George

[David]

If you can field like Ozzie Smith, you don't need 500 home runs to get into the Hall of Fame. If you're a power hitting designated hitter you need lots of home runs.

[David]

Placing a bet that someone, anyone, will average 44+ home runs for the next four years isn't a good bet.

[byergo]

He has almost zero chance of making the HOF. I don't think any DH has ever been voted in. He's getting old and in bad physical condition. He needs OTHER WORLDLY offensive numbers to even have a slim chance, and he's hurt by putting up big numbers during the steroid era.

[jboosted92]

Placing a bet that someone, anyone, will average 44+ home runs for the next four years isn't a good bet.


Ortiz is unique. Like Terry Bradshaw in the NFL..his stats werent all that, but 4 rings and clutch performance does it.

Ortiz has been critical in both Red Sox W.S. wins in 04 and 07. He can hit to all fields, and with power. and is clutch

if he retired today, i would say no. If he gets 450+ dingers with his avg. on the 300 mark. id say he gets in

[metsbats]

He has almost zero chance of making the HOF. I don't think any DH has ever been voted in. He's getting old and in bad physical condition. He needs OTHER WORLDLY offensive numbers to even have a slim chance, and he's hurt by putting up big numbers during the steroid era.


That's true. Though Paul Molitor was a DH only the last 8 years of his career he did have 3319 hits which could not be ignored.

Some folks can make a good case for Edgar Martinez who was so respected for this work as a DH that the best DH in the AL gets the Edgar Martinez award each year.

I'm not understanding how putting up big numbers in the steriod era would hurt Ortiz unless one day we find out he tests positive or did steriods while putting up the big numbers. If Ortiz did put up the big numbers without the use of steriods it could only help him.

I think when the Ortiz becomes eligible and if he gets to some of the milestone numbers (ie 500+ hrs 1400-1600 RBIS) combined with the intangibles, the writers will look at him from the total package perspective and he will not be penalized for being a DH.

I think the reason the DH is not looked upon as a true position player is because it's been traditionally a rotating door for vets who cannot play a position any more (ex. Mike Piazza, Reggie Jackson in his later years) or rotating position for injured or platoon players.

Guys like Martinez and Ortiz who embraced the position and made the most of it and produced big time to help their teams win as DH should not be penalized for not playing a position.

David

[Rob L]

The answer is simple - he has a shot if Edgar makes it in. No other way.

[Tedw9]

I do not think a DH should be penalized any more than a closer should be. It's part of the game, period. It is how the game has evolved and with the evolution, so should the HOF criteria and the views on who should or should not get in.

ANY player, reguardless of their role, should be considered despite what their role was.

And as far as Ortiz goes, early on in his career he was injured frequently. But he was also made to try to become a hitter of average instead of being able to just go up and hit. This had to affect his power numbers and average because he was trying to do what the manager wanted, not what came natural. I believe he lost a lot of numbers early on in his career because of both factors.

I think the fact he is playing for the Red Sox, his clutch hitting and his performance in the playoffs and winning a couple of World Series will help his cause when he comes up for election...as long as he keeps up his performance until he retires.

[metsbats]

Most
By A Designated Hitter
AL
Edgar Martinez (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=martied01)
Seattle

243
261

Frank Thomas (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=thomafr04)
Chicago

196

Oakland

39

Toronto

26
NL
Mike Piazza (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=piazzmi01)
New York

9
10

San Diego

1


For those purists out there it's interesting to note that the Big Hurt hit more than half of his 500 home runs as a DH. (this according to the Baseball Almanac stat above)

Does this take away from Frank Thomas's chances for the HOF?

Not sure why Big Papi's name is not on this list.

[Rboitano]

No way, hes a modern day Mo Vaughn.

[David]

The essential difference between Frank Thomas and David Ortiz is Thomas' 500 home runs aren't projected.

[David]

It is possible, but possible isn't good odds for a bet.

After Ortiz retires, we'll see what his career totals were. It was Mickey Mantle who said, "I was over the hill at age 33."

[David]

I don't even pretend to have the ability to accurately predict active players' career home run totals, so I do it the old fashioned way and wait until they're retired.

As Bob Uecker said, the best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait for it to quit rolling and pick it up.

[geoff]

He is a great player but its to early to tell.

[3arod13]

Be strictly a one tool player, he would have to have out of this world offensive numbers. I don't think he is hall of fame material.

George

Couldn't agree more! A player up great numbers, and most of his career not playing in the field, shouldn't go to the HOF. If this is the case, then many who play both side, and put up decent numbers, should get in.

Ortiz is able to do nothing but rest, while his teammates are there playing hard in the field, then they're also coming to bat and running the bases.

Although I like to watch Ortiz for his power, I don't believe numbers alone should put a one tool player in the HOF.

[metsbats]

Couldn't agree more! A player up great numbers, and most of his career not playing in the field, shouldn't go to the HOF. If this is the case, then many who play both side, and put up decent numbers, should get in.

Ortiz is able to do nothing but rest, while his teammates are there playing hard in the field, then they're also coming to bat and running the bases.

Although I like to watch Ortiz for his power, I don't believe numbers alone should put a one tool player in the HOF.



Some argue that being a DH is harder because you have to keep your head in the game while sitting on the bench while 9 of your team mates are on the field. Doing nothing but rest can be a hard thing on the mind in game situations.

Bottom line is that he still has to get 4 ABs and make contact with the ball like everyone else.

I can use the same arguement for closers. A pitcher who is gifted with a nasty split finger fastball or a high 90's -100 MPH fastball and did nothing but rest and eat sun flower seeds in the bullpen for the last 8 innings comes in to face three batters, tired batters who played 8 innings on the field and at bat, unless your the DH of course, and pitches that one inning to get 3 measly outs.

Perhaps closers have it too easly too.

David

[3arod13]

If you solely DH, then NO WAY! If you play and occassionally DH, then I can understand.

Bottom line, to me a HOFer is someone who is the best at playing the entire game...offensive and defensive...not just DHing.

[kellsox]

There would be a lot less players in the Hall of Fame if they only took players that were excellent offensive AND defensive players. Would you consider Ozzie Smith a great offensive player? If Ortiz puts up the #'s the next 4-6 years and has the post season resume that he has, I think theres a good shot of him getting in.
k

[suave1477]

I would definitely like to thank everyone who took the time out to post on this thread i posted it 2 days ago and i check back in on it about 5 hours later after i posted it, to see to my amazement it was already up to 3 pages.

I learned a lot from how everyone felt as I myself felt kind of on the fence about Ortiz possibilities of getting into the hall.

But what I would like to point out that this is the type of responses we should have to most threads where every one gets involved and puts in something for us all to learn from or see a different angle of how to look at things.



SO TO EVERYONE THAT HAD SOME INPUT ON THIS THREAD MY HATS OFF TO YOU!!!