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View Full Version : Why do you do it? Ramblings from a bored man...



toddhead
09-11-2007, 01:16 PM
Be advised, this post is really just the ramblings of an extremely bored man. I do not offer any refund on the time spent reading this...

As I sit down in my gradually growing "man room" I look at all of my autographed helmets and footballs and think "most of these aren't going to be worth squat in the future". Don't get me wrong, I don't collect for the money, but I don't like throwing money away. I was a huge card collector and recently got out of it because the market for cards is going to crash again just like it did in the 80's and 90's. I remember when game used jersey cards first came out and the prices were through the roof. Now, you can't even pay people to take some of the jersey cards that are made now. I believe autographs on non game used memorabilia will be the same in the near future for most current stars. There is such an over saturation of autographs (real and fake) that prices can't possible maintain their current values. I know this doesn't apply to older and deceased players, but it's going to happen with the current players.

All that being said, in my opinion, the game used market is probably the one aspect of the sports memorabilia hobby that can't really be oversaturated. For example, we'll pretend that Peyton Manning has a 13 year career and wears a new jersey for every single game of his career. That would equal 208 regular season jerseys and less than 50 playoff/Super Bowl jerseys. We all know that isn't the case, but even if it was, that number is dwarfed in comparison to the number of autographs he would sign in that 13 year period. We'll be conservative and say he signs 10,000 autographs a year, so he will sign 130,000 times during his career. We'll say in college he signed 5,000 autographs and he'll sign a total of 40,000 more after he retires in the next 20 years. That is a grand total of 175,000 autographs (not counting fakes) compared to 258 pro game used jerseys.


Do you agree? Do you think the autographs of most current stars will be worth anything in the future? Do you collect GU stuff with potential value in mind? Do you just do it for the love of it? Do you do it solely for investment purposes? Do you do it for the excitement of the "chase"? Why do you do it?

I know this really sounds like I am just worried about values and such, but it's really not. It's just me being bored and hoping to spark some discussion on the board. I have about 20 signed 49ers mini helmets that mean the world to me and they are signed by players most people have never heard of. I do it for the love of it, but I also like to consider future values when I am purchasing something expensive.

Vintagedeputy
09-11-2007, 01:47 PM
I think autos will be ok. Vintage cards will remain hot and legit gu items will stay strong.

Some day, my grandchildren will pick up a Jorge Posada bat from my collection and will be in awe. Then we'll go to Cooperstown and see his HOF plaque.

Pieces like that in my collection will be worth thieir weight in gold.

Jim

toddhead
09-11-2007, 01:52 PM
Some day, my grandchildren will pick up a Jorge Posada bat from my collection and will be in awe. Then we'll go to Cooperstown and see his HOF plaque.

Pieces like that in my collection will be worth thieir weight in gold.

Jim

I hear you there. I have a 49ers great football signed by Montana, Clark, Rice and Lott that I feel the same about. Someday I hope my daughters will like football enough for me to explain how great these guys were and then we can go to Canton...

mr.miracle
09-12-2007, 09:09 AM
I too worry about the price of things not from the perspective that I am necessarily looking to sell now in fact that is not usually the case, but more so from the what if perspective of what if this market crashes five years from now and I need to move some items to pay bills etc. and I am stuck selling at a 50% loss. I agree that quality game used items will continue to go up in value. That is why I have been slowly trying to streamline my own collection with quality over quantity to have the very few select best pieces that I can get my hands on instead of buying everything in sight. My theory is, if I can acquire very difficult to obtain pieces they will always be in demand if the time comes that I need to move them in the future.

mvandor
09-12-2007, 09:28 AM
I fear the OP is right, as I collect the same stuff, NFL signed items, mostly helmets, mini helmets, footballs, jerseys.

Too many big players have oversaturated the market. Joe Montana, for example, must sign a thousand items a day 7 days a week, it's insane. There's so much stuff out there that it's cheaper to buy stuff from volume sellers he's signed than to go to a show with an item you bought and get his signature. A Proline helmet my brother bought 10 years ago is actually worth no more today than then.

As I rotate items out of my two year old collection (I just started as the outfall of an office redecorating project), I've taken a loss on nearly every item. It's frustrating.

Supply and demand, it controls all. As OP states, I expect to take losses when my collection is sold in 20 or so years, especially with what I've spent on displays - cases, nameplates - which are worth little at resale.

steeltownjerseys
09-12-2007, 09:44 AM
Overall I agree that the autograph market is getting flooded. Here's what gets me....why are some autographed pieces marked up higher than others. For example an index card signed by Favre would be tough to sell for $20, yet a Favre auto jersey might sell for $550!
The cost of the jersey is about $250, so in essence youre paying an additional $300 for the sig. That's what is crazy to me!
I like game issued/worn pieces because I know that I have something rare and unique. If I can get them signed, it's a bonus!
As far as autographs, I now mostly collect auto 16x20 photos. Reason is they look great when displayed, and at that point you are viewing it more as art. I don't buy things in hopes to make money usually, but game memorabilia, in my opinion, will never flood the market.
It's like buying stocks...if the demand does go down, I will be able to buy more for my dollar...either way I'm in!

sammy
09-12-2007, 04:10 PM
One piece of advice, collect vintage items, be these equipment or autographs.